Where Will Costco Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has consistently outperformed the broader market, generating a total return of 33% over the past 12 months, significantly ahead of the S&P 500's 9% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 of fiscal 2025, Costco reported a net sales increase of 9.1%, driven by a same-store sales gain of 6.8%, primarily due to higher foot traffic [3] - Strong demand was noted across various categories, including gold and jewelry, gift cards, toys, and home furnishings, with all categories showing double-digit growth [4] - The membership model has proven effective, with a 6.8% year-over-year increase in membership base and a 93% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada [5] Market Position and Resilience - Despite economic uncertainties, Costco is viewed as recession-resistant due to its broad product offerings at low prices, making it an all-weather business [8] - The company has maintained a strong growth trajectory, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing at a compound annual rate of 11.5% over the past decade [6] Stock Performance Outlook - While Costco has a strong historical performance, predicting its stock performance over the next 12 months is challenging [9] - The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.3, which is considered high given its EPS growth of 16.9% in fiscal 2024 and a forecasted 12.2% gain for the current fiscal year [10] - There is a belief that the stock may underperform the S&P 500 despite the potential for higher prices in the future [10]