美联储主席鲍威尔“言论冲击波”，全球市场连锁反应全解析

Market Reaction - The U.S. stock market experienced its largest decline since the pandemic, with the Dow Jones dropping 10.7% over two days and the Nasdaq entering a technical bear market with a pullback exceeding 20% from its historical peak [2] - The S&P 500 index saw a loss of $6.5 trillion, marking the largest weekly drop since March 2020, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks plummeted 8.87% in a single day [2] - Major tech companies lost a combined market value of $1.8 trillion, with Tesla's stock falling over 15% in one day [2] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index surged 1.5% to reach a three-month high, while the offshore Chinese yuan fell below the 7.40 mark [2] - Commodity currencies faced significant declines, with the Australian dollar dropping to a new low of 0.60 against the U.S. dollar, a 5.19% decrease in one day [2] - Safe-haven currencies showed mixed results, as the Japanese yen appreciated slightly by 0.3%, while the Swiss franc depreciated by 1.2% due to tightening market liquidity [2] Bond Market - The yield curve inverted to its steepest level in 18 years, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 18 basis points to 4.25% and the 2-year yield soaring by 25 basis points to 4.85% [2] - The inversion reached -60 basis points, the highest level since 2007, indicating a significant increase in recession risk [2] - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield bonds widened by 35 basis points in one day, reaching the highest level since January 2024 [2] Institutional Response - The probability of a rate cut in June plummeted from 68% to 12%, while the likelihood of a rate hike in September surged to 45% [3] - Traders revised their expectations for rate cuts in 2025 from four times to two times [3] - Investment banks adjusted their strategies, with UBS downgrading its rating on U.S. stocks from "overweight" to "neutral," warning that the S&P 500 could fall below 5000 points [3] Policy Conflicts - There is a conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve, with President Trump advocating for rate cuts to stimulate the economy, while the Fed remains cautious about inflation [5] - The imposition of 34% tariffs on China could push the U.S. core CPI above 4% in the next three quarters [5] - The restructuring of global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, is leading to increased costs for companies [5] - The market is currently in a "policy vacuum panic period," with a stark contrast between Powell's assertion of a "still good" economic foundation and the collapse of capital markets [5]