信达证券：A股震荡时间或拉长 大概率不会直接终结牛市

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the U.S. reciprocal tariff policy on the global economic and political landscape is significant, but it may only result in a one-time shock to the A-share index, which is primarily driven by domestic policies and economic cycles [1][2][11] Short-term Impact - The tariff policy is expected to have a considerable impact on the global economy, but its effect on the A-share index may be less severe than anticipated. Historical events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, show that while global shocks can be significant, the A-share market's performance remained relatively stable [2][3] - The previous trade conflicts between the U.S. and China indicate that domestic economic cycles have a more substantial influence on the stock market than export data. The A-share market's resilience during the 2018-2019 trade tensions exemplifies this [6][9] Medium-term Impact - The influence of exports on the stock market is expected to be less significant than that of domestic economic cycles. The recovery of social financing and the end of the real estate downturn are anticipated to bolster domestic economic strength by 2025, which will be more impactful than export fluctuations [6][9] Long-term Impact - The optimal combination of technology, labor, and capital is crucial for economic growth, with trade policies serving as a means to achieve this. Historical patterns show that countries can develop through various means, not solely through traditional free trade [9][11] - China's manufacturing advantages suggest that the economy has moved beyond relying solely on exports for growth, allowing for a balanced approach in the current environment [11] A-share Strategy - The tariff shock is likely to prolong the current market volatility but is not expected to alter the overall bullish trend of the A-share market. The market's upward trajectory is supported by policy and valuation cycles, as well as the ongoing deleveraging in the real estate sector [1][11] - Current market conditions favor small-cap and low-price strategies, but historical trends indicate that these strategies may lose effectiveness as the market transitions into a new upward phase. A shift towards large-cap stocks is anticipated as the market stabilizes [14]