中信建投:美国加征关税力度超市场预期,关注年报季回归基本面、关注国内增量政策把握政策节奏
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-04-07 00:16

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has exceeded market expectations, leading to a notable decline in U.S. stock markets while A-shares in China have shown resilience, indicating a trend of "East rising, West declining" [1][2] Market Performance - Despite the significant impact of U.S. tariffs, the A-share market demonstrated stronger-than-expected resilience, with no major fluctuations observed, contrasting with the continuous decline in U.S. stocks [2][12] - The focus is shifting towards the annual report season, where investors will prioritize actual corporate performance over expectations, which may help stabilize market sentiment [2][12] Policy Response - The Chinese government is expected to implement measures to stabilize market sentiment and enhance resilience against U.S. tariff impacts, including accelerating domestic demand and introducing incremental policies [1][3] - The current policy environment is stable, with a focus on the implementation of previously announced measures, such as consumption stimulation and long-term special bonds to support key projects [3][8] Trade Measures - The U.S. has announced a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a minimum 10% tariff on other trading partners, effective from April 5, which has raised concerns about its impact on global trade dynamics [1][6] - China has historically responded to U.S. tariffs with various measures, including currency devaluation, targeted tariffs, and adjustments in import policies, which have helped mitigate the effects of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports [4][5] Domestic Demand Policies - The Chinese government is promoting consumption through initiatives such as a special action plan to stimulate consumer spending, which includes significant financial support for upgrading consumer goods [8][9] - Investment policies are also being enhanced, with an expansion of long-term special bond issuance aimed at supporting major infrastructure projects [9][10] Future Policy Outlook - The market is advised to maintain reasonable expectations regarding the pace of policy implementation, as the current environment is characterized by a stable policy rhythm following the recent political meetings [14] - There is an emphasis on the need for coordinated policy efforts across fiscal, monetary, and industrial sectors to enhance the overall effectiveness of economic measures [14][15]

CSC-中信建投:美国加征关税力度超市场预期,关注年报季回归基本面、关注国内增量政策把握政策节奏 - Reportify