银河证券头条——政策定力较强，债市做多胜率提高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has officially initiated a trade war with the announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs, resulting in an average import tariff rate exceeding 20%, the highest since the 1930s, reflecting a significant shift in global trade dynamics under Trump's administration [1] Tariff Summary - The global average tariff increase is set at 10%, with countries facing larger trade deficits subjected to higher tariffs. The so-called "comprehensive tax rate" includes not only tariffs but also VAT, non-tariff barriers, and any perceived unfair practices by the U.S. [1] - China faces a cumulative tariff burden of approximately 65%, which includes an average pre-Trump tariff of 11%, a 20% tariff related to fentanyl issues, and an additional 34% in reciprocal tariffs [1] Impact on Other Countries - Asian countries are significantly affected, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff, Thailand 36%, Taiwan 32%, Indonesia 32%, India 26%, and Malaysia 24%. Europe faces a 20% tariff, while the UK is subjected to a 10% tariff, indicating some negotiation flexibility [2] Additional Tax Measures - A 25% tariff on automobiles has been introduced, and the exemption for small Chinese goods has been canceled [3] Strategic Focus of Tariffs - Tariffs are strategically aimed at China, with rates exceeding 60%, and also target key manufacturing sectors related to military and technological security, such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles [4] - Tariffs are also used as leverage in broader negotiations, including issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] Economic Impact on the U.S. - The imposition of tariffs is expected to create stagflation pressures in the U.S. economy, with an estimated GDP impact of about 1.6 percentage points, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the second half of the year [4] - The tariffs will cause a one-time spike in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but a decline in overall demand may lead to a deflationary effect, insufficient to alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [4] Impact on China’s Economy and Policy - The cumulative tariffs from the U.S. are projected to reduce China's GDP by approximately 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points. In response, China is likely to enhance domestic demand strategies, with potential policy measures including childcare subsidies and urban renovation projects [5] Market Implications for China - The tariffs exacerbate global economic instability, but China's domestic market resilience may provide a competitive edge. The impact on economic growth is unavoidable, yet available policy tools can effectively mitigate adverse effects, maintaining a stable economic outlook [6] - In the fixed income market, external uncertainties may enhance the appeal of bonds, while stock market activity will influence bond performance, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in the second quarter [7] Currency Impact - The impact on the Chinese yuan is expected to be less severe than in 2018, with short-term fluctuations around 7.3. The stability of the yuan is supported by the narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [7]