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华新水泥(600801):中期海外市场提供确定性成长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 34.2 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.98%, with a net profit of 1.28 billion yuan, an increase of 43.9% [1] - The company recorded asset disposal gains of 750 million yuan in 2024, primarily reflected in Q4, contributing significantly to the performance [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.46 yuan per share, accounting for 40% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, continuing its past dividend practices [3] Group 2: Industry and Market Conditions - The national cement production in 2024 is expected to be 1.825 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, indicating a challenging demand environment [2] - Despite efforts to limit production, the overall industry profitability remains low, with many companies facing losses [2] - The company sold a total of 60.27 million tons of cement and clinker in 2024, a decline of 3% year-on-year, with domestic sales expected to face slight losses [2] Group 3: Business Segments - The aggregate business is currently the company's primary profit driver, with sales reaching 14.3 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9% [2] - The gross margin for the aggregate business was 47.92%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The company plans to focus capital expenditures of approximately 13.3 billion yuan on aggregate, overseas cement capacity, and alternative fuel construction in 2025 [3] Group 4: Capacity and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company has a cement production capacity of 12.6 million tons per year and an aggregate capacity of 28.5 million tons per year [4] - The company has established a presence in 12 countries, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and several African nations, becoming a leader in the Central Asian and African cement markets [4] - The overseas operational and under-construction capacity has exceeded 25 million tons, further solidifying the company's development in Africa [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company projects total revenue of 37.1 billion yuan for 2025, with plans to sell approximately 5.7 million tons of cement and clinker, 17 million tons of aggregate, and 3 million cubic meters of concrete [3] - Expected earnings for 2025 and 2026 are 2.6 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 11 and 10 [5]