Newmont vs. Barrick Gold: Which Mining Giant Is the Better Bet Now?

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) are two leading gold mining companies, both benefiting from soaring gold prices due to global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, making them relevant for investors in the precious metals sector [1][2]. Group 1: Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is focused on growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, which are expected to enhance production capacity and extend mine life [4]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a robust portfolio, with expected annual run-rate synergies of $500 million, enhancing shareholder value [5]. - Newmont's attributable gold production increased by approximately 9$4.3 billion [6]. - The company reported liquidity of $7.7 billion at the end of 2024, with operating cash flow from continuing operations rising to$6.3 billion, up from $2.8 billion in 2023 [7]. - Newmont returned$1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, with a dividend yield of 2.3% and a payout ratio of 29% [8]. - However, Newmont faces challenges with rising production costs, with gold costs applicable to sales increasing by roughly 7% year over year in 2024, and all-in-sustaining costs projected to rise to $1,630 per ounce in 2025 [9]. Group 2: Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) - Barrick has made a strong recovery in 2024, driven by rising gold prices, despite facing high production costs and operational issues in the previous year [11]. - The company is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush and the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, which are expected to significantly boost production [12]. - Barrick reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately$4.1 billion at the end of 2024, with operating cash flows increasing by 20% year over year to around $4.5 billion [13]. - The company returned about$1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024, with a dividend yield of 2.3% and a payout ratio of 31% [13]. - Barrick's cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs increased by around 11% year over year in 2024, with projections for 2025 indicating further increases [14]. Group 3: Price Performance and Valuation - Year to date, NEM stock has increased by 18.7%, while GOLD stock has gained 14%, compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 24.9% [15]. - NEM is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.62X, representing a 12% discount to the industry average of 15.55X [16]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates declines of 3.6% and 7.2%, respectively, while GOLD's estimates suggest growth of 4.7% and 10.3% [18][21]. - Barrick appears more attractively priced with a forward earnings multiple of 12.44X, lower than its five-year median and below the industry average [19]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Both NEM and GOLD are well-positioned to benefit from the surge in gold prices, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [24]. - Barrick may have a slight edge over Newmont due to its more attractive valuation and positive growth projections, suggesting better investment prospects in the current market environment [25].