全球股市巨震，明天A股会怎么走？

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced significant declines, with Japan's market dropping over 7%, South Korea's over 5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling over 11%. The A-share market also saw a substantial drop, with the ChiNext index down over 12% and nearly 3,000 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1][2]. Economic Factors - The "reciprocal tariffs" issue in the U.S. is still unfolding, with a 10% minimum baseline tariff already in effect and a higher tariff set to take effect soon, posing a potential disaster for the global economy [1]. - Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession, adjusting the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1% to 0.5% and increasing the recession probability for the next 12 months from 35% to 45% [1][2]. Investment Behavior - There has been a rapid sell-off by hedge funds and ETFs, with over $40 billion in stocks sold last Friday, indicating a flight of "smart money" from the market [2]. - The market's initial belief that zero tariffs would resolve the situation has proven ineffective, as U.S. trade advisors indicate that even with zero tariffs, issues such as export subsidies from Vietnam remain [2]. Sector Performance - The agricultural planting sector showed resilience, with projected imports of soybeans, corn, and wheat from the U.S. for 2024 being 22.13 million tons, 20.719 million tons, and 1.3 million tons respectively, highlighting the importance of food security [3]. - Chicken-related stocks performed actively due to the suspension of imports from two U.S. poultry companies and four others, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]. Market Sentiment - The sentiment in the A-share market is extremely negative, exacerbated by declines in global markets, leading to increased panic selling [4]. - The performance of Apple-related stocks and AI hardware sectors has been notably poor, reflecting broader market trends [4].