取消800美元免税，TEMU、SHEIN等企业的中国直邮模式将受到怎样的冲击？

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. tariff policy will significantly impact e-commerce platforms and cross-border merchants that rely on direct shipping from China, as it eliminates the "de minimis" exemption for certain imported goods [3][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - Starting May 2, imported goods from mainland China and Hong Kong will no longer qualify for the "de minimis" exemption, leading to the imposition of all applicable tariffs unless shipped via international postal networks [3][4]. - Goods entering through the postal system will face either a 30% tariff based on value or a fixed fee of $25 per item, with the fee increasing to $50 from June 1 [3][4]. - The U.S. government has already imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods and plans to increase tariffs to 34% on certain imports starting April 9 [4]. Group 2: Impact on E-commerce and Retail - The adjustment of the "de minimis" policy provides clarity for shippers who previously struggled with the fluctuating regulations related to small-value exemptions [4][5]. - E-commerce companies like SHEIN and TEMU, which have rapidly expanded in the U.S. market, have benefited from the "de minimis" policy, allowing them to maintain low shipping costs and a light inventory model [5][6]. - The number of packages entering the U.S. under the "de minimis" exemption reached 1.4 billion in FY 2024, nearly double that of 2022, with the total value of goods imported under this policy soaring from $5.3 billion in 2018 to $66 billion in 2023 [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Impact - The cancellation of the "de minimis" exemption is expected to increase annual consumer spending in the U.S. by $11 billion to $13 billion, translating to an additional burden of $35 to $80 per person [7]. - Retailers like Amazon, which rely on U.S. warehouse distribution, may gain market share as competitors are affected by the new tariffs [7]. - The policy change may lead to a shift in the cross-border e-commerce supply chain, with Chinese companies potentially establishing local warehouses in the U.S. or utilizing alternative routes through countries that still enjoy the exemption [7][8].