CSC(SH:601066) 智通财经网·2025-04-07 23:56Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expected decline in the U.S. stock market due to tariffs is likely to be contained within 10%, suggesting a gradual approach to a short-term bottom [1][4] - The adjustment process of the U.S. stock market typically follows three phases: a rapid decline driven by sentiment and expectations, a potential second bottom if economic downturns materialize, and a trend recovery dependent on economic improvement [2] - Historical comparisons show that during past crises, the S&P 500 experienced short-term declines ranging from 10% to 30%, with the current decline at 17% and volatility at high levels, indicating that the pressure is being released [3] Group 2 - The current situation suggests that there is no systemic liquidity crisis, despite a decline in the dollar index, which could indicate a rebalancing of assets rather than a severe liquidity shortage [6][7] - The potential execution of tariffs could have profound impacts on both the U.S. and global economies, with historical parallels drawn to significant economic events in the 1930s and 1970s, indicating a long-term risk for the dollar and U.S. stocks [8] - The recovery paths for the U.S. stock market post-crisis vary based on economic recovery models, with the current situation resembling the 2008 financial crisis more than the recoveries seen in 2018 and 2020, suggesting significant challenges ahead if tariffs are implemented [9]