HKEX(HK:00388) 智通财经网·2025-04-08 01:39Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a target price of HKD 435 for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) and an outperform rating, with earnings forecasts largely unchanged [1] Group 1: Revenue and Earnings Forecast - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to increase by 31% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 6.83 billion, with fee income (excluding investment income) projected to rise by 47% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 5.65 billion [1] - Profit is anticipated to grow by 36% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 4.05 billion [1] Group 2: Market Activity and Trading Performance - The average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in Q1 2025 is expected to rise by 144% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 242.7 billion, with southbound ADT increasing by 255% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 109.9 billion [2] - The number of IPOs completed in Q1 2025 is 15, raising HKD 18.2 billion, which represents a 279% year-on-year increase but a 43% quarter-on-quarter decline [2] Group 3: Investment Income and Margin Trends - Investment income is projected to decline by 15% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1.14 billion, primarily due to high base effects from external equity investment returns [3] - The margin size may decrease quarter-on-quarter due to a decline in derivative trading margin ratios influenced by lower volatility [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Valuation - The current forward P/E ratio for Hong Kong Exchanges is at historical relative lows, trading at the 36% and 24% percentiles of the last three and five years, respectively [4] - Anticipated policy developments and market reforms are expected to support trading activity and provide a catalyst for valuation recovery [4]