小商品城(600415)：业绩符合预期 重仓一带一路 美国关税影响有限

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, indicating robust business operations and potential for future growth [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.161 billion yuan, an increase of 17.93% year-on-year - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 803 million yuan, up 12.66% year-on-year - The non-recurring net profit was 795 million yuan, reflecting a 15.14% increase year-on-year - The operating cash flow was negative at -278 million yuan, compared to 180 million yuan in Q1 2024, primarily due to the timing of revenue recognition from rental and service fees [1] Business Development - The Global Trade Center is set to open in October 2025, expected to significantly boost the company's main business in 2025 - The pre-registration for the center has exceeded the available commercial space, indicating strong market interest [2] - The company is heavily invested in the Belt and Road Initiative, with limited impact from U.S. tariffs on its business operations [2] Strategic Initiatives - The strategic incubation business is entering a value release phase, with Chinagoods and Yi Payment collectively achieving over 200 million yuan in net profit in 2024, and expected to continue contributing to performance in 2025 - Chinagoods has accelerated the application of new technologies, achieving revenue of 341 million yuan and a net profit of 165 million yuan in 2024, marking a 102.05% year-on-year growth [3] Technology and User Engagement - The company is enhancing platform intelligence through AI technology, with over 4.8 million registered buyers on the Chinagoods platform and more than 1 billion cumulative usage and access counts - The cross-border payment system has been upgraded, with Yi Payment achieving over 4 billion USD in cross-border receipts in 2024, a 233% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 61.04 million yuan, up 274.67% [4] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 4.05 billion, 5.32 billion, and 6.74 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 31%, and 27% [4]