证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 重视高低切消费板块投资机会，商社板块低 估值高股息组合发布 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，终端需求不及预期，新业务拓展不及预期等。 2026 年 03 月 23 日 2026 年 3 月 23 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 2025/3/24 2025/7/22 2025/11/19 2026/3/19 商贸零售 沪深300 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Xiaogoods City Industry and Company Overview - Xiaogoods City operates in the small commodity trade sector, specifically in Yiwu, which is recognized as China's largest and most famous small commodity export hub. The company is a local state-owned enterprise and plays a central role in the industry chain, with an official annual transaction volume of approximately 300 billion yuan, potentially higher in reality, contributing to Yiwu's customs export figure of 730 billion yuan in 2025 [8][12]. Key Points and Arguments Export Performance and Market Dynamics - Yiwu's total import and export volume is projected to exceed 840 billion yuan in 2025, with exports reaching 730 billion yuan, a 24% increase from 580 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The reduction of tariffs on U.S. imports from 20% to 15% has boosted confidence in exports to the U.S., leading to a recovery in orders from this market [5]. - The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America is expected to enhance trade activity related to this event [5]. Business Expansion and Revenue Growth - The Global Digital Trade Center (Zone 6) is set to complete its IP toy market recruitment by January 2026, with a selection fee of approximately 100,000 yuan per unit, contributing to operational revenue [2]. - The ChinaGOODS platform is expected to see profits nearly doubling to 400 million yuan in 2025, driven by AI value-added services and high service fees for new merchants [2]. - Cross-border payment services are projected to reach 10 billion USD in 2026, a 50% increase from 2025, with the uniqueness of 1,039 trade payment licenses being a core growth driver [2]. Rental Market and Financial Performance - The rental market shows a significant price difference between primary and secondary markets, with potential for annual revenue growth of 5% and profit growth nearing 10% [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 6 billion yuan in 2026, with a current market valuation PE ratio of only 12-13 times, indicating a low valuation relative to expected annual growth rates exceeding 20% [2][12]. Impact of Currency Fluctuations - Recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate have pressured profit levels for merchants, but the company's core revenue model, which relies on service fees and rent, is not directly affected by currency movements [3]. - The long-term impact of a stronger RMB could affect the competitiveness of export goods, but the immediate effects on the company's performance are expected to be limited [3]. Future Growth Drivers - Future growth is expected to be driven by three main factors: expansion of market area, continuous rental increases, and the enhancement of trade services such as the ChinaGOODS platform and cross-border payment services [9]. - The company plans to hold large-scale conferences in March 2026 to promote the positive list policy for imports, which is anticipated to significantly boost Yiwu's import business [7]. Additional Important Insights - The company has implemented a floating rent reform linked to macroeconomic indicators, achieving an average annual rental income growth of around 5% over the past few years [9]. - The company’s stock price has recently experienced a decline due to currency fluctuations, presenting a potential investment opportunity at current levels [12].

Group 1: Bond Investment Strategy - The report highlights a transition in bond investment strategy towards a "sell on every rise" approach, driven by asset allocation rebalancing and the current weak position of bond assets compared to equities [9][10] - The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized as a "non-typical recovery" period, with a focus on nominal growth recovery, fiscal spending structure, and inflation trends as key indicators for the bond market [9][10] - The report suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may range between 1.77% and 1.95%, with a potential upward breakout above 1.9% [9][10] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - High dividend assets are expected to remain attractive in 2026, with historical performance indicating that sectors with dividend yields above 3% generally provide absolute returns during periods of RMB appreciation [12][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sectors, particularly discretionary consumption, which tends to outperform during inflationary periods, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [12][10] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is anticipated to benefit from RMB appreciation, with a focus on companies that possess unique ecological positions and infrastructure capabilities [12][10] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Strategy - The U.S. stock market is projected to have limited valuation upside due to geopolitical uncertainties and a shift from light to heavy asset investments, with capital expenditures expected to broaden beyond technology giants [11][13] - The report notes that the S&P 500 index is expected to see stable earnings growth of around 16%, with current valuations at approximately the 70th percentile historically [11][13] - AI investments are highlighted as having potential in upstream and midstream sectors, with opportunities for alpha generation in the value chain [11][13] Group 4: Future Industries - The report discusses significant advancements in future industries, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and brain-machine interfaces, indicating a strong trend towards commercialization and technological breakthroughs [15][16] - The approval of the first invasive brain-machine interface for clinical use marks a significant milestone in the industry, reflecting increased investment and interest in this area [15][16] - The report outlines the importance of hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, with China joining the "Triple Nuclear Declaration" to enhance global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the duty-free and gold jewelry sectors, suggesting a "Buy" rating for the industry based on expected growth exceeding market averages [29]. Core Insights - Duty-Free: Hainan's offshore duty-free sales data is impressive, alleviating market concerns. From March 1 to March 12, sales reached approximately 1.59 billion, with a daily average of 133 million, reflecting a 41.7% increase compared to the previous month. The growth in March exceeded expectations, driven by high-net-worth individuals attending events in Hainan [1][11][13]. - Gold Jewelry: Laopo Gold has forecasted its 2025 performance, with expected revenues of 27-28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 217%-229%. Net profit is projected at 4.8-4.9 billion, up 226%-233%. The company plans two price increases in the second half of 2025, which are expected to be well-received by consumers, enhancing profit margins [1][14]. Industry Data Tracking - GMV Performance: In the fourth week of January, the combined GMV of Tmall and JD.com increased by 81.52% year-on-year, likely influenced by the timing of the New Year festival. The top five categories showing growth were automotive, home improvement, books and media, watches, and outdoor sports [2][15]. Market Review - In the week of March 9 to March 13, major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.76%. The retail sector underperformed, ranking eighth among nine major consumption sectors [3][18][21]. Investment Recommendations - Duty-Free: The investment logic remains intact, with current prices warranting more aggressive attention. The short-term outlook is positive due to reduced discounts and currency appreciation driving profit margins. The mid-term outlook is bolstered by the recovery of high-end consumption and the return of Japanese tourists [4][26]. - Gold Jewelry: Continued recommendations for leading brands like Laopo Gold, which is expected to benefit from consumer acceptance of price increases and ongoing brand strength. Additionally, Chaohongji is anticipated to enhance profitability through new product launches and improved store models [4][26][27].

Company Profile: From Market Operator to Intelligent Ecosystem Builder - The company has evolved from a regional small commodity wholesale market to the world's largest small commodity distribution center, showcasing a comprehensive upgrade in business philosophy, operational model, and service capabilities [5][6]. - The management team combines state-owned resources, internal expertise, and market-oriented innovation, with a diverse incentive mechanism to align the interests of core team members with the company's long-term goals [8][10]. - The core business is divided into four segments: market operations, product sales, digital services, and supporting services, with market operations contributing significantly to stable cash flow [11][14]. Industry Landscape: Restructuring Global Trade and the "1039 Model" Dividend - The small commodity industry is characterized by its resilience to economic cycles, lightweight operations, and tight integration within the supply chain, serving global end consumers and small wholesale markets [29][31]. - Global trade growth has shifted from high-speed expansion to moderate fluctuations, increasing pressure on small foreign trade entities, which face challenges in order fragmentation and rising operational complexity [32][33]. - The "1039 model" is a trade method designed to adapt to the characteristics of professional market aggregation, facilitating lower transaction thresholds and streamlined customs processes, thus enhancing the operational efficiency of small commodity markets [35][36]. Growth Drivers: Short, Medium, and Long-term Perspectives - In the short term (1-2 years), the launch of the new market area and price adjustments in existing markets are expected to secure high cash flow certainty [49]. - The medium-term growth (3-5 years) will be driven by digital trade and cross-border payment innovations, leading to a revaluation of the company's worth [49]. - Long-term growth (5+ years) will leverage the import hub and national trade reforms, capitalizing on the "buy global" policy dividends [49]. Financial Analysis - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 322.4% from 2020 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.35%, driven by both market operations and product sales [15][16]. - The net profit has shown a significant increase from 927 million to 3.074 billion from 2020 to 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 231.6% [16][20]. - The gross and net profit margins have recovered post-pandemic, with gross margins reaching 31.4% and net margins stabilizing at 19.6% in 2024, indicating strong operational resilience [23][28]. Market Competitiveness Analysis - The investment logic of the company is shifting from a single rental asset model to a multi-faceted trade infrastructure encompassing physical markets, digital trade, cross-border finance, and global logistics [49]. - The competitive landscape is evolving from physical space competition to competition based on transaction organization and comprehensive service capabilities, with a focus on policy adaptation and data utilization [41][42].

Macro and Strategy - The 2026 government work report emphasizes the priority of "high-quality development" over "stability" with a GDP growth target adjusted to 4.5%-5.0%, aiming to balance growth and quality during a transitional period [7][8] - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a total broad deficit of 11.89 trillion yuan and a deficit rate of approximately 8.1%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [8] - Monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with anticipated adjustments including one rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction in 2026 [8] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical industry investment strategy for March 2026 recommends focusing on rising crude oil and natural gas prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that disrupted energy supplies [9][10] - The conflict has led to significant price increases in European natural gas, with prices surging over 50% due to supply disruptions from Iran and Qatar [9] - The supply side is experiencing a downturn in fixed asset investment, indicating the end of the expansion cycle, while policies are aimed at eliminating low-priced, disordered competition [10] - Demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, alongside growth in new energy and AI sectors driving demand for key chemicals [11] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices stabilizing between $70-$75 per barrel and WTI prices between $65-$70 per barrel in 2026, with specific investment recommendations for companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [12] Retail Industry - The retail investment strategy for March 2026 highlights the proactive positioning of leading beauty brands for the upcoming International Women's Day promotions, with expectations for improved performance due to new product launches [17] - Gold prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 22.34%, impacting consumer sentiment and sales in the jewelry sector [18] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, suggesting that leading companies in gold and beauty will continue to grow despite short-term market volatility [19] Ctrip Group - Ctrip's Q4 2025 revenue grew by 20.8% year-on-year, outperforming expectations, with a total revenue of 15.4 billion yuan [20][21] - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and optimizing traffic monetization, with significant growth in overseas bookings through its Trip.com platform [21] - Regulatory scrutiny regarding antitrust issues is a key concern, but the company's strong operational capabilities and supply chain integration are expected to support steady growth [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sector [3][44]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new product launches and promotional activities during the March 8th sales period, which is anticipated to provide positive data performance compared to the previous year's low base [1][12]. - The gold jewelry sector is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with COMEX gold prices increasing by 22.34% from the beginning of the year to March 2. Despite short-term impacts on consumer sentiment, the long-term growth logic for leading brands remains intact [2][15]. - The report highlights that the overall retail sector is expected to rebound due to policy support and the potential for increased consumer spending as the market stabilizes [3][20]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Personal Care - The March 8th promotional period is crucial for sales, with brands expected to leverage platform support and new product launches to drive growth [12][13]. - Major domestic brands are actively launching new products, enhancing brand loyalty and attracting new customers [13][16]. Gold Jewelry - The sector is influenced by gold price volatility, but leading companies are expected to maintain stable growth due to strong brand positioning and innovative product offerings [2][19]. - Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business are projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimates of net profit for 2025 ranging from 1.06 to 1.23 billion [18]. Market Trends - The retail sector's total sales in December 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% [20][24]. - The beauty and personal care segment outperformed the overall market, with a notable increase in online sales contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [29][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Gold Jewelry: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold, Chow Tai Fook, and Chao Hong Ji [3][44]. - Beauty and Personal Care: Proya, Betaini, Shangmei, Ruoyu Chen, and Dengkang Oral Care [3][44]. - Cross-border E-commerce: Anker Innovations, Small Commodity City, and Focus Technology [3][45]. - Offline Retail: Hangzhou Jie Bai, Jia Jia Yue, Chongqing Department Store, and Yonghui Supermarket [3][45].

Summary of Conference Call for Xiaogoods City Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaogoods City - **Industry**: E-commerce and Trade Services Key Points and Arguments Business Segments - **Core Business Segments**: The company operates four main segments: 1. **Market Operations**: Core profit source with a gross margin of approximately 84%. Rental income is expected to grow at an annual rate of about 5% over the next three years, with a projected increase of 7% in 2025 [3][4]. 2. **Product Sales**: Gross margin of about 0.7% to 0.9%, serving as a traffic driver. The company engages in direct sourcing and OEM for domestic sales and exports [3]. 3. **Trade Services**: Includes the ChinaGoods online platform and Yipay payment services. ChinaGoods is expected to generate over 300 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with net profit of approximately 170 million yuan, and is projected to double in 2025 [3][6]. 4. **Supporting Services**: Includes hotels, exhibitions, and logistics, contributing around 500 million yuan in revenue in 2020 [4]. Global Digital Trade Center - **Global Digital Trade Center**: Scheduled to open in October 2025, with initial site selection fees exceeding 10 billion yuan, expected to total 12-13 billion yuan. This will be amortized quarterly over three years, providing a strong foundation for future performance [2][4]. Financial Projections - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.46 billion, 5.86 billion, and 7.49 billion yuan respectively, with an overall growth rate of about 30% [2][11]. - **Valuation**: Projected PE ratio for 2026 is approximately 14 times, indicating potential for valuation reconstruction [2][11]. Yipay Payment Services - **Transaction Volume Growth**: Yipay aims for a transaction volume of 10 billion USD by 2026, with fees around 0.2%. The service's coverage will expand from 20% to 100% of trade scenarios due to the "1,039" settlement pilot [2][7][10]. Import Trade Facilitation - **Policy Changes**: The reform in import trade will reduce the registration period for cosmetics from one year to three months, with a target of exceeding 200 billion yuan in imports by 2030 [2][9]. Market Dynamics - **Rental Growth**: Traditional rental income is entering an upward cycle, with expected annual growth of about 5% in the next three years [2][3]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: Recent stock price declines are attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting foreign trade expectations, though the company itself is less impacted due to diversified trade relationships [11]. AI and Digital Transformation - **AI Application Development**: The ChinaGoods platform is developing AI applications, which are expected to enhance profitability as they transition from promotional to paid services [10]. Concerns and Future Growth - **Concerns Over Revenue Decline**: The company plans to mitigate potential revenue declines post-2028 by developing a new area (Zone 7) that will align with the end of the site fee amortization from Zone 6 [5]. Additional Important Information - **Market Structure**: In Yiwu, general trade accounts for about 20% while market procurement trade constitutes 80%, with the latter benefiting from tax incentives [10]. - **Revenue from Supporting Assets**: The supporting assets in Zone 6, including office buildings and commercial areas, are expected to generate significant rental and sales income, contributing to overall revenue stability [5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning.

证券代码：600415 证券简称：小商品城 公告编号：临 2026-001 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司 第十届董事会第二次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 （一）本次董事会的召开方式、程序均符合相关法律、法规、规章和《公司 章程》的要求。 （二）本次董事会的会议通知及材料于 2026 年 2 月 14 日以电子邮件、书面 材料等方式送达全体董事。 （三）本次董事会于 2026 年 2 月 28 日以通讯方式召开。 （四）本次董事会应出席董事 9 人，实际出席董事 9 人。 具体内容详见公司同日于上海证券交易所网站披露的《关于聘任公司副总经 理的公告》（公告编号：临 2026-002）。 表决结果：同意 9 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 本议案经公司董事会提名委员会审议通过。 （二）审议通过了《关于公司部分董事 2024 年度薪酬兑现的议案》 关联董事许杭先生回避表决本议案。 表决结果：8 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 本议案尚须提交公司股东会审议。 单位： ...

证券代码：600415 证券简称：小商品城 公告编号：临 2026-002 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司 关于聘任公司副总经理的公告 王正超，男，1986 年 2 月出生，汉族，中共党员，研究生学历 2020.10-2022.02 任浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司国际生产资料市 场分公司副总经理 2022.02-2022.12 任浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司办公室主任、人力 资源部（党建办）总经理，义乌数字港科技有限公司总经理 2022.12-2024.04 任浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司办公室主任 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2026年2月28 日召开第十届董事会第二次会议，审议通过了《关于聘任公司副总经理的议案》， 同意聘任王正超先生为公司副总经理，任期自董事会通过之日起至本届董事会届 满之日止。王正超先生简历详见附件。 特此公告。 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司董事会 二〇二六年三月二日 - 1 - 附件： 2024.04-2 ...