注意，上海明年有三万套新房解除限售，市场要改变了

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "release tide" of new homes in Shanghai, starting in April 2026, is expected to significantly impact the real estate market, with a total of 33,561 new homes set to be released from April to December 2026, and a cumulative total of 137,250 new homes expected to be released in 2026 and 2027 [10][26]. Group 1: Market Statistics - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 29,369 units, slightly below the peak in December 2024, marking a small high since 2021, which boosts confidence for upcoming transactions in April [1]. - From 2021 to March 2025, the percentage of new homes triggering sales restrictions has decreased from 47% in 2021 to 12% in 2024 [5]. - By April 2026, a total of 2,582 new homes will have their sales restrictions lifted, with the majority of releases concentrated in June and July, totaling over 13,725 units [8][9]. Group 2: Impact on Specific Areas - The "release tide" will particularly affect two major areas: the Greater Hongqiao and Lingang, with 4,506 new homes set to be released in Greater Hongqiao and 2,508 in Lingang [16][20]. - In Greater Hongqiao, the average listing price for second-hand homes has dropped by 4.1% in the past year, while Lingang has seen a similar trend, indicating potential price pressures due to the influx of new homes [18][20]. Group 3: Future Projections - The release of new homes is expected to continue beyond 2026, with approximately 46,000 units anticipated in 2027, followed by a decline to around 12,000 units by 2029 [26][27]. - The upcoming new homes are primarily concentrated in suburban areas, with significant numbers expected in Qingpu, Jiading, and other districts outside the city center [28][25]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The new homes entering the market are expected to be similar in product type, with a significant proportion being small to medium-sized units, which may lead to increased competition in the second-hand market [30][32]. - The shift in market dynamics indicates a move towards more residential-focused properties, with investment attributes diminishing as the market stabilizes [34].