“10元小酒馆”神话崩塌，海伦司崩盘 | 酒业内参

Core Viewpoint - Helen's, known as "the first stock of Chinese taverns," is facing significant challenges in 2024, including a drastic decline in direct sales, over 20% drop in same-store sales, and a shift from profit to loss [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Helen's total revenue plummeted by 37.8% from 12.09 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.52 billion yuan [2] - Direct sales revenue fell approximately 50%, from 11.03 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.58 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The franchise business, however, saw explosive growth, with revenue increasing by about 85% from 1.05 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.95 billion yuan in 2024, raising its revenue share from 8.7% to 25.9% [2] Profitability - Helen's reported a net loss of 77.976 million yuan in 2024, compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in 2023, marking a significant shift from profit to loss [3] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 65.46%, from 291 million yuan in 2023 to 100.6 million yuan in 2024 [3] Store Operations - As of March 19, 2025, Helen's had a total of 579 stores across 274 cities in China, with a notable reduction in direct and franchise stores [3] - Same-store sales dropped by 21.3% in 2024, with average daily sales per store decreasing by 21.5% [3] Market Challenges - The overall consumption market showed weakness in 2024, with a 1.4% decline in alcohol consumption prices [5] - The shift to lower-tier cities has posed challenges, as these markets generally have lower customer spending and brand recognition [6] Market Valuation - Since its IPO in September 2021, Helen's market value has decreased by over 90%, from a peak of over 30 billion HKD to approximately 2 billion HKD by April 8, 2025 [7] - The company was removed from the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect, leading to decreased trading activity and liquidity issues [7] International Expansion - Helen's aims to enhance its international brand presence through a secondary listing in Singapore, but has seen minimal growth in overseas store numbers [8] - Cultural differences and operational challenges may hinder the company's overseas business from becoming a significant growth driver in the short term [8] Strategic Outlook - Balancing expansion with profitability and adapting to new consumer trends are critical challenges for Helen's moving forward [9] - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for assessing the effectiveness of Helen's strategic transformation [9]