证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 10.21 亿，同比 下降 22.4%，对应 25Q4 归母净利同比下降 92.5%，主因消费大环境影 响、汽贸业态新能源转型拖累业绩 ...

在"网红城市"西安，一家小酒馆成为了新晋排队王。 近日，魏世纪（HeyWeGo•Bistro）音乐餐酒吧在西安开业，没有过多的宣传预热，一开业便迅速走红，吸引一众消费者排队数小时打卡。 1月20日，时代财经通过线上取号平台查询实测发现，在当日下午多个非传统就餐时段，该店排队桌数均稳定在50桌以上。此外，在二手平台上，目前已 出现了魏世纪的黄牛代排取号业务，一次代取号收费在20-50元之间。 一家凉皮店"跨界"开出来的小酒馆，在沉寂已久的小酒馆赛道杀出一条血路。无独有偶，1月9日，中国餐酒吧品牌COMMUNE幻师母公司极物思维有限 公司递交上市招股书，2025年前三季度，该公司营收同比增长14.2%至8.72亿元。 以海伦司为代表的小酒馆生意，又复活了吗？ 排队12小时，"魏家帝国"又火了 "周日下午2点取号，直到半夜1点半才进店。"1月18日，有消费者在点评平台留言称。 据悉，魏世纪自开业以来便持续"一座难求"的火爆状态，排队动辄数小时，社交平台上不乏网友晒出长达八九小时的排队记录。 该门店营业时间为早上11时至凌晨2时。据多位消费者的经验，即便在工作日，魏世纪也常大排长龙，下午2点后到店也常需排队四五个小时 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Tongdao Liepin (06100) rose by 10.17%, reflecting market recognition of its "AI recruitment strategy" and "financial stability" [1] - The restaurant sector saw significant gains, with Haidilao (06862) up 7.7%, Jiumaojiu (09922) up 5.38%, and Helens (09869) up 6.67%, driven by demand recovery since early 2023 [1] - Voice Technology (02495) surged over 10% after announcing a share issuance of 6.73 million shares at HKD 46.3 each, with approximately 50% of the proceeds allocated for R&D [1] Group 2 - Alibaba-W (09988) increased by nearly 5%, following announcements at the 2025 Cloud Summit regarding changes to hardware infrastructure in response to new market demands [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) rose over 5.3% after announcing a plan to acquire approximately 97.5% of Huali Micro for CNY 8.268 billion [2] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings (09636) saw an increase of nearly 8%, attributed to active market trading with a daily turnover reaching CNY 3.6 trillion [2] Group 3 - Jingtai Holdings (02228) rose over 5.5%, with a month-to-date increase of nearly 50%, following the successful dual approval of its incubated company ReviR's innovative drug RTX-117 [2] - Xun Ce (03317) briefly rose over 6%, reaching a new high of HKD 68, due to a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Jinyong Investment [2] - Alibaba Health (00241) surged over 14.2%, with a month-to-date increase exceeding 30%, following the announcement of a milestone solution in the infant vascular tumor treatment field [3] Group 4 - Bitcoin rose over 2.5%, reaching USD 93,500, with Bitcoin-related stocks also increasing, including MSTR up 6.63% and COIN up 4% [4] - GCDT, a green decarbonization technology company, saw its stock price surge 25% after its IPO, which aims to raise approximately USD 10 million for factory construction and debt repayment [4] - Lithium giant Albemarle (ALB.US) rose 4.46%, with analysts noting a reduction in concerns over its balance sheet as it achieves leverage optimization [4] Group 5 - Gold concept stocks showed mixed performance, with AngloGold Ashanti (AU.US) up 1.11% and Barrick Mining (B.US) up 1.39%, while some others declined [5] - Google (GOOGL.US) increased by 1.24% following a significant partnership with Apple to advance AI technology, with Google's Gemini model becoming a core support for future Apple devices [5] - Payment concept stocks continued to decline, with major banks also falling, amid concerns over potential impacts from proposed credit card interest rate caps [6] Group 6 - Intel (INTC.US) and AMD (AMD.US) saw initial gains of 7.33% and 6.39%, respectively, after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded their ratings to "overweight" [6] - Rezolve AI (RZLV.US) fell 9.23% despite raising its long-term revenue forecast, indicating significant commercialization progress [7] - Satellogic (SATL.US) declined 1.11% after a previous surge, following the announcement of a contract for two high-resolution satellites [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong restaurant stocks experienced a collective surge, with Haidilao leading the rise by over 10%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the restaurant sector as consumer spending rebounds during the holiday season [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Haidilao's stock price increased by 10.12% to 15.880 [2] - Other notable performers included Jiumaojiu, which rose by 5.91% to 1.970, and Hailun Si, which increased by 4.44% to 0.940 [2] - The overall trend shows a strong recovery in the restaurant sector, with multiple stocks experiencing significant gains [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The consumer market saw a "good start" during the New Year holiday, with over 4.5 million customers served across Haidilao's stores from December 31, 2025, to January 1, 2026 [1] - Dining experiences have become an essential aspect of travel, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards enjoying culinary delights during outings [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Haidilao's founder and chairman, Zhang Yong, has returned to the front line of management, taking on the role of CEO [1] - The restaurant industry is focusing on two main growth strategies: penetrating lower-tier markets and expanding internationally, as brands seek new growth opportunities beyond first and second-tier cities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant sector is experiencing a recovery since the beginning of 2023, driven by demand and supply dynamics, with leading brands expected to see positive customer traffic in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Notable stock increases include Haidilao (06862) up 9.64% to HKD 15.8, Jiumaojiu (09922) up 4.84% to HKD 1.95, Helen's (09869) up 3.33% to HKD 12.99, and Tehai International (09658) up 3.26% to HKD 12.99 [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Zheshang Securities, the recovery in the restaurant industry is largely determined by demand, while the pace is dictated by supply, with expectations for most leading brands to achieve positive customer traffic in the second half of 2025 [1] - The average customer spending is stabilizing or increasing for many leading brands, indicating a recovery in pricing power [1] - The report suggests that the bottom has been reached for customer spending and single-store performance among leading brands, with ongoing monitoring of same-store sales growth and sustainability [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Guotai Junan notes that the overall demand in the restaurant supply industry has been under pressure in recent years, leading to intensified competition driven by market share concerns [1] - The marginal benefits from price competition have significantly decreased, prompting leading companies to adopt a more rational competitive stance [1] - The profitability of the restaurant supply sector has shown signs of recovery, indicating that the worst operational period has passed, with competition becoming more rational and leading companies innovating in new products, channels, and markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of the restaurant industry since the beginning of 2023, driven by demand and supply dynamics [1] - Major restaurant stocks have shown significant gains, with Haidilao up 9.64% to HKD 15.8, Jiumaojiu up 4.84% to HKD 1.95, Helen's up 3.33% to HKD 12.99, and Tehai International up 3.26% to HKD 12.99 [1] - Zhejiang Securities reports that most leading restaurant brands are expected to see a positive turnaround in customer traffic in the second half of 2025, as the year-on-year basis normalizes [1] Group 2 - The average customer spending is stabilizing or recovering for more leading brands, indicating an improvement in market conditions [1] - Guotai Junan notes that the overall demand in the restaurant supply industry has been under pressure, leading to intensified competition, but the marginal benefits from price competition have significantly decreased [1] - The restaurant supply sector has reportedly passed its worst operational phase, with competition becoming more rational and leading companies innovating in new products, channels, and markets [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in the restaurant sector, with notable gains from several companies [1] - Haidilao led the surge with an increase of over 10%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Other companies such as Jiumaojiu, Helen's, and Tehai International also experienced significant increases of 6%, 4.4%, and 3.4% respectively [1]

消息上，2026年元旦假期，全国多地消费市场迎来"开门红"，餐饮场景热度集中释放。旅途中品尝"舌 尖上的美味"，早已成为人们出行的重要意义之一。海底捞数据显示，2025年12月31日跨年夜至2026年1 月1日假期首日，全国门店累计接待顾客超450万人次。时隔近四年，海底捞创始人及董事会主席张勇回 归管理一线，接任公司CEO。 港股餐饮股集体拉升上涨，其中，海底捞大涨超10%领衔，九毛九涨6%，海伦司涨4.4%，特海国际涨 3.4%，呷哺呷哺、小菜园、太兴集团跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 06862 | 海底捞 | 15.880 | 10.12% | | 09922 | 九毛九 | 1.970 | 5.91% | | 09869 | 海伦司 | 0.940 | 4.44% | | 00156 | 力宝华润 | 0.840 | 3.70% | | 09658 | 特海国际 | 13.010 | 3.42% | | 00520 | 甲哺明明 | 0.760 | 1.33% | | 06831 | 绿茶集团 | 7.020 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company "极物思维" is attempting to become the first listed restaurant and bar stock in Hong Kong, contrasting with the struggles of "海伦司" which is facing declining performance and stock prices [1][10][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - "极物思维" submitted its main board listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 9, aiming to capture the title of "first restaurant and bar stock" [1][10]. - The company has established 112 direct-operated stores across 40 cities in China, with 109 operating under the "COMMUNE幻师" brand [3][12]. - "极物思维" has achieved a market share of 7.8% in the restaurant and bar sector by 2024, ranking first in revenue for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [3][12]. Group 2: Business Model and Performance - The company's business model includes a full-day service approach, offering diverse food options during the day and transforming into a social drinking venue at night [3][12]. - Revenue increased from 845 million RMB in 2023 to 1.074 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.1% [5][14]. - The gross profit margin has remained above 65%, reaching 68.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly higher than competitors like "蜜雪集团" and "海底捞" [5][14]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - "海伦司" is struggling with a single low-cost model, leading to a 34% revenue drop to 291 million RMB in the first half of 2025, while "极物思维" has shown resilience with a net profit increase of over 40% [5][16]. - The low-cost strategy of "海伦司" has resulted in a decline in service quality, impacting customer retention, while "极物思维" mitigates risks through a diversified operational strategy [5][16]. Group 4: Growth Challenges - Despite strong current performance, "极物思维" faces challenges related to its reliance on first and second-tier cities, with over 90% of its stores located in these areas [7][16]. - The company plans to expand into lower-tier cities, but faces difficulties as sales in these markets are significantly lower, with average daily sales of approximately 20,100 RMB compared to 38,483 RMB in first-tier cities [9][18]. - The need to balance brand positioning with market demands in lower-tier cities presents a significant challenge for "极物思维" [9][18].