摩根士丹利：美联储不会救市，今年可能完全不会降息

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that President Trump's tariff policy will initially raise inflation before slowing economic growth, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout 2025 [1][2] - The forecast indicates that the U.S. GDP growth will nearly stagnate, with core inflation expected to rise significantly above the Fed's 2% target by the end of the year [1][2] - The Fed's key overnight lending rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.8% in February to 3.9% by year-end [1] Group 2 - Actual GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, with the Fed likely prioritizing inflation control over stimulating economic growth [2] - No interest rate cuts are expected until March 2026, with a potential reduction of the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75% following seven 25 basis point cuts [2] - A recession could alter this outlook, potentially leading to earlier and more significant rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to intervene to support the stock market amid recent sell-offs, with the S&P 500 index potentially needing to drop to 4600 points to find a bottom [3] - The government is not anticipated to provide stimulus measures to counteract the impact of tariffs, as fiscal policy is seen as part of the problem [3] - The weakening of the U.S. "exceptionalism" aura may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., affecting financial markets [3]