中信建投：建议重点关注医药新增量和行业整合机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pharmaceutical industry is expected to see moderate growth by 2025, driven by improved global liquidity and supportive national policies for industrial innovation [1][2] - The industry is entering a phase of high-quality growth, with significant reforms in the healthcare sector, including the establishment of a multi-faceted medical insurance payment system [1][2] - The focus is on long-term investment opportunities in innovative pharmaceutical companies, particularly in the medical device and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, as well as state-owned enterprises [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has experienced fluctuations in growth rates due to base effects and public health events, but it is expected to achieve moderate growth by 2025 as demand stabilizes and policy expectations become clearer [2] - The valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low, with the latest valuation at the 27th percentile, indicating potential for recovery as institutional holdings remain below historical averages [3] - As of Q4 2024, public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector are at 8.18%, with a notable increase in holdings for certain innovative drug and CXO companies, suggesting a potential rise in investment in high-growth segments of the industry [3]