中信证券(600030)：好于预期 经纪、投资业务为主要驱动

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities announced a positive earnings forecast for Q1 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.545 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] Business Performance - The company's Q1 2025 net profit is expected to be 6.545 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 33%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The investment business is anticipated to be a major driver of performance, with the stock market showing volatility and the bond market under slight pressure [1] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds in Q1 2025 is projected to be 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, supporting the recovery of CITIC Securities' brokerage business [1] Market Position - In Q1 2025, CITIC Securities' market share in equity refinancing increased, with a significant rise in refinancing underwriting scale by 179% year-on-year [2] - The company holds the top position in the industry with 10 IPOs and 31 refinancing projects under review as of April 8, 2025 [2] - The bond underwriting scale reached 435.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the evolving landscape of the securities industry and aims to build a first-class investment bank [2] - Forecasted net profits for CITIC Securities from 2025 to 2027 are 23.81 billion yuan, 25.96 billion yuan, and 28.29 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10%, 9%, and 9% respectively [2]