Will Intel Stock Be a Trade War Winner?

Core Insights - Intel is facing significant challenges, including loss of market share to AMD, struggles in the AI accelerator market, and heavy investments in new manufacturing facilities [1] - The new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, aims to scale up production of the Intel 18A manufacturing process while attracting new clients for the foundry business [2] Foundry Development - The Intel 18A manufacturing process is fully developed and in limited production, marking progress in Intel's foundry efforts [2] - The challenge remains to achieve profitability by scaling production and acquiring new customers [2] Tariff Implications - Current global tariffs exclude semiconductors, but future tariffs could apply, potentially benefiting Intel's foundry as clients may prefer the Intel 18A process [3][4] - Tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing equipment will increase costs for Intel's U.S. manufacturing expansion, as a typical facility requires around 1,200 multimillion-dollar tools [5] - Increased tariffs could lead to higher prices and reduced demand for PCs and servers, negatively impacting Intel's product business [6] Dependency on TSMC - Intel is a significant customer of TSMC, outsourcing production of key PC chips, which could be adversely affected by tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors [7] - The shift of Intel's server CPU production to Ireland will also face a 20% tariff under the current plan [8] Investment Outlook - While there are reasons to consider Intel's potential comeback, tariffs are likely to complicate this recovery, with risks of decreased demand for CPUs and increased manufacturing costs [9][11] - The shift to U.S.-based manufacturing for the Panther Lake CPU may reduce reliance on TSMC, but uncertainty remains regarding the future of tariffs [10]