Lumen Plummets 34% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 34.1% in the past month, which is notably worse than the declines of the S&P 500 and the Technology Services industry [1][4]. Price Performance - The broader market has been affected by escalating tariff and trade tensions, particularly with China, leading to supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures [4]. - LUMN's stock has underperformed compared to peers like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, which have seen smaller declines of 9.3%, 3.3%, and 7.6% respectively [5]. Company-Specific Challenges - Lumen is facing challenges from its legacy business, which saw a 5.3% year-over-year revenue decline to $3,329 million in Q4 2024, with 25% of this decline attributed to divestitures and sales [7]. - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, with capital expenditures expected to range from $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion [8]. Debt Concerns - Despite repaying $1.6 billion of debt in 2024, Lumen's balance sheet remains heavily indebted, with $17.494 billion in long-term debt as of December 31, 2024 [9][10]. AI and Growth Opportunities - Lumen's pivot to AI is seen as a potential growth catalyst, with $8.5 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals secured in 2024 [11]. - The demand for fiber capacity is increasing due to AI needs, with significant sales growth in IP and Wave services, both up 13% in North America's enterprise channels [12]. Network Expansion and Utilization - Lumen plans to expand its inter-city fiber miles from 12 million in 2022 to 47 million by 2028, aiming to increase network utilization from 57% to 70% during the same period [13][14]. Cost Containment Efforts - The company is targeting $1 billion in cost savings by the end of 2027 through infrastructure simplification and product portfolio reduction [17]. Valuation Perspective - Lumen is currently trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.24, significantly lower than the Technology Services industry's ratio of 3.46, indicating a compelling valuation opportunity [18][19]. Conclusion - Lumen is navigating a transformative period with potential growth from AI and cloud services, but faces challenges from legacy business issues and high debt levels. The company is focusing on cost containment and network expansion to improve its financial position [20][21].