国际油价持续走低

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market is currently experiencing a downward trend due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and unexpected production increases from oil-producing countries, leading to a dual pressure on oil prices [1]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of January 15, 2025, international oil prices peaked at $82.5 per barrel before entering a downward trend, with significant volatility observed in early April [2]. - On April 8, 2025, light crude oil futures for May delivery closed at $59.58 per barrel, down $1.12 (1.85%), while Brent crude for June delivery closed at $62.82 per barrel, down $1.39 (2.16%) [2]. - By April 9, Brent crude futures fell by 6.15% to $58.95 per barrel, and WTI crude futures dropped by 6.36% to $55.34 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for international oil prices, predicting they will fall below $60 per barrel by 2026, marking the second downward adjustment within a few days [3]. - The new price expectations for Brent and WTI crude are set at $58 and $55 per barrel, respectively, following a $4 reduction in their previous estimates [3]. - Analysts suggest that if the U.S. reverses its tariff policies and alleviates market uncertainties, oil prices could exceed current forecasts [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The focus of the international oil market may shift towards supply and demand fundamentals, with potential additional supply from progress on the Iran nuclear deal putting further pressure on prices [3]. - If OPEC+ maintains its production increases and demand concerns persist, oil prices could drop to $65 or even $60 per barrel [3]. - Geopolitical tensions or emergency production cuts by OPEC+ could support a rebound in oil prices, while U.S. sanctions on oil imports from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia may tighten supply and mitigate the impact of commodity tariffs [3]. - OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on May 5 to decide on June production levels, which is expected to trigger further market adjustments [3].