Core Viewpoint - The property management industry is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, leading to a downward revision of Poly Property's (06049) EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 to RMB 2.84/3.05 from the previous RMB 3.18/3.60, with a new 2027 EPS forecast of RMB 3.33, reflecting growth rates of 6.5%, 7.4%, and 9.4% respectively, and a target price adjustment to HKD 36.68 based on a 12x PE for 2025 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 16.342 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.474 billion, up 6.79% year-on-year [2] - The company optimized its cost structure, resulting in a management expense ratio of 6.9%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with comprehensive gross and net profit margins of 18.26% and 9.02%, respectively, reflecting decreases of 1.35 and 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a robust cash flow, with operating net cash flow of RMB 2.3 billion in 2024, covering net profit by 1.5 times [3] - The board proposed a dividend of RMB 1.332 per share (before tax) for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a 33.5% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 50%, up 10 percentage points from 40% in 2023 [3] Market Expansion and Quality Improvement - By the end of 2024, the company managed a contract area of approximately 988.1 million square meters and a managed area of 803.4 million square meters, serving 2.29 million households across 194 cities [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a record high of approximately RMB 300.52 million in new third-party project contracts, with 79.5% of new contracts coming from 50 core cities, including significant contributions from Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu, Changsha, and Tianjin [4] - The company improved the structure of its market expansion, with 75.9% of new contracts in five core non-residential sectors, an increase of approximately 10.3 percentage points year-on-year, and 90 new projects exceeding RMB 10 million in contract value, accounting for about 65.0% of new contract amounts [4]
国泰海通：维持保利物业(06049)“增持”评级 下调目标价至36.68港元