保利物业 20251117 摘要 保利物业基础物管板块维持双位数收入增长，主要受益于保利发展交付 及第三方市场拓展，但非业主增值板块受地产周期影响收入下滑，全年 压力较大，中期结构特点明显。 公司通过精益管理对冲毛利率承压，归母净利润增速符合指引，但相对 收入增长压力更大。小业主端回款率受房价下行影响下滑明显，公服和 商办回款总体可控。 2025 年前三季度市场拓展延续双位数增长，以国资、商办公服及三星 产业类客户为主，全年目标单年合同金额不低于 30 亿元，核心五十城 项目分布达到 85%。 公司尚未发布 2025 年派息指引，但表示长期希望给予市场和股东可预 期的稳步分红回报，2024 年派息比例为 50%，从 2022 年的 25%逐步 提升。 保利物业关注服务品质提升，针对不同档次小区推出不同产品，并升级 客服中心及智能工单系统，提高响应效率和服务效率。 Q&A 保利物业在 2025 年第三季度的经营情况如何？ 2025 年第三季度，保利物业整体运营基调依然稳健。公司年初给出的业绩指 引是收入和归母净利润预计不低于 5%的增速，上半年已经达成这一目标，三 季度表现也基本符合预期。具体来看，基础物管板块 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stabilization of the residential balance sheet suggests a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, but the speed of improvement will determine the duration of this bottoming process [3][4] - The report highlights that since 2021, China's housing prices have cumulatively declined by 37%, which is longer than the average decline of 34% over 6.1 years in 42 countries, indicating that while the price drop is significant, the adjustment period in China is still relatively short [22][7] - The report identifies five major opportunities in the industry, including the stabilization of the residential asset-liability ratio, a decrease in the housing price-to-income ratio, improving rental yields, a bullish stock market potentially boosting wealth effects, and a deep clearing of supply-side issues [3][4] Group 2 - The industry outlook predicts a structural bottoming out, with opportunities arising for quality housing and commercial real estate, driven by policies focusing on demand recovery and high-quality development [3][4] - The report anticipates that the core cities will stabilize sooner due to healthier supply-demand relationships, with a forecast for sales volume and price declines to narrow in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, recommending specific companies in the quality housing and commercial real estate segments, as well as undervalued firms and property management companies [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The central bank is enhancing financial support for the real estate sector, contributing to a new development model, while second-hand housing sales have shown a month-on-month increase [6][15] - The report highlights that the real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 2.7% compared to a 1.08% decline in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 3.78% [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.08%, indicating stronger performance in the sector [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of November 7-13, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 20,673 units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%. The total area sold was 2.171 million square meters, down 35.5% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [4][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 18,576 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% but a month-on-month increase of 3.4%. The total area sold was 1.855 million square meters, down 18.7% year-on-year but up 6.2% month-on-month [4][32] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 188.439 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a depletion cycle of 173.4 weeks [4][50] 3. Land Market Supply and Transaction Analysis - During the week, 6,292.4 million square meters of land were supplied, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while land transactions totaled 1,189.5 million square meters, down 73.9% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 4.62 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.05% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014 [4]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [4]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, indicating that this combination has historically performed better during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities likely to benefit more from these changes [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 1.59 million square meters, showing a week-on-week increase of 17.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [2]. - The new housing transaction area for first-tier cities was 432,000 square meters, up 12.6% week-on-week but down 42.5% year-on-year [2]. - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 881,000 square meters, up 24.7% week-on-week and down 23.4% year-on-year [2]. - Third-tier cities had a transaction area of 276,000 square meters, up 4.9% week-on-week but down 47.7% year-on-year [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 2.003 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week growth of 4.7% but a year-on-year decline of 17.0% [2]. - First-tier cities accounted for 856,000 square meters in second-hand transactions, up 8.7% week-on-week [2]. - Second-tier cities had a transaction area of 873,000 square meters, up 1.4% week-on-week [2]. - Third-tier cities recorded 273,000 square meters, up 3.7% week-on-week [2]. Credit Bonds - In the week of November 10-16, four credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, a decrease of eight from the previous week, with a total issuance of 3.62 billion yuan, down 6.63 billion yuan [3]. - The total repayment amount was 10.829 billion yuan, an increase of 4.359 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -7.209 billion yuan, down 10.989 billion yuan [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index had a cumulative change of 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.78 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14]. - A total of 84 stocks in the real estate sector rose, while 30 stocks fell, with the top five gainers being Qianjing Garden, China Wuyi, Huaxia Happiness, Guancheng Datong, and Rongsheng Development, with gains of 61.0%, 30.0%, 26.3%, 21.6%, and 18.2% respectively [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious optimism despite current challenges [2][3]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in new construction and completion rates. For the period from January to October 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction down by 19.8% and completions down by 16.9% [1][20]. - The sales side shows a broader decline in sales volume and price. From January to October 2025, the sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a more pronounced drop of 18.8% in October alone. The sales amount also fell by 9.6% year-on-year, with a 24.3% decline in October [2][33]. - Funding sources for real estate development are tightening, with total funding down by 9.7% year-on-year. In October, funding sources saw a significant drop of 21.9% compared to the previous month [35]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with core cities expected to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the potential shift of real estate companies towards manufacturing and the favorable conditions for quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. - Adjustments to the 2025 forecasts include a projected investment decline of 14.2% (previously 11.0%), new construction down by 18.0% (previously 15.1%), and completions down by 17.7% (previously 20.0%) [20][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In October 2025, new home prices in 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline narrowed. First-tier cities maintained their price decline [6][10] - Second-hand home prices experienced both month-on-month and year-on-year declines, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [6][10] - The report highlights that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization due to various policies aimed at halting the decline, with expectations for further stabilization in the future [6][10] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - New home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.4%, and -0.5% month-on-month respectively, with an overall decline of -0.5% across 70 cities, which is an increase in the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points compared to September [3][13] - Year-on-year, first, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of -0.8%, -2.0%, and -3.4% respectively, with the overall year-on-year decline for 70 cities narrowing by 0.1 percentage points to -2.6% [3][13] Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by -0.7% month-on-month, with the decline rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of -0.9%, -0.6%, and -0.7% respectively [4][20] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices across 70 cities decreased by -5.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points [4][20] Key City Performance - In a focus on 35 key cities, new home prices showed mixed results, with Shanghai leading with a month-on-month increase of +0.3% and a year-on-year increase of +5.7% [5][28] - Conversely, second-hand home prices in these cities uniformly declined, with Shanghai experiencing a year-on-year drop of -1.8% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong credit real estate companies that can cater to improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others [6][10] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Property (06049) announced the resignation of its current domestic and overseas auditors, Tianzhi International Accounting Firm and Tianzhi Hong Kong Accounting Firm, effective from November 13, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board plans to appoint Lixin Accounting Firm and Hong Kong Lixin Dehao Accounting Firm as the new domestic and overseas auditors, effective from November 13, 2025 [1] - The term of the new auditors will last until the conclusion of the extraordinary general meeting where the formal appointment of the auditing firm will be reviewed [1]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Property (06049.HK) announced the resignation of its current auditing firms, Tianzhi International and Tianzhi Hong Kong, effective from November 13, 2025, to enhance audit service efficiency and align with governance standards [1] Group 1 - The company aims to maintain good corporate governance practices and ensure proper development [1] - The resignation of the auditing firms is part of a coordinated effort with the company's ultimate holding company regarding audit arrangements [1] - The board plans to appoint Lixin Certified Public Accountants and Hong Kong Lixin Dehao Certified Public Accountants as the new auditing firms, effective from November 13, 2025, until the conclusion of the extraordinary general meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Property (06049) announced the resignation of its current domestic and overseas auditors, Tianzhi International Accounting Firm and Tianzhi Hong Kong Accounting Firm, effective from November 13, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board intends to appoint Lixin Accounting Firm and Hong Kong Lixin Dehao Accounting Firm as the new domestic and overseas auditors, effective from November 13, 2025 [1] - The term of the new auditors will last until the conclusion of the extraordinary general meeting where the formal appointment of the auditing firm is reviewed [1]

POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO., LTD. 保利物業服務股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 上市規則項下的涵義 於本公告日期，中國保利集團及其聯繫人於本公司已發行股本總額中合計擁有 72.289%權益，因此，中國保利集團為本公司控股股東，從而為本公司關連人 士。保利財務由中國保利集團及其聯繫人合計擁有100%權益，因此為本公司關 連人士。因此，《2026至2028年度存款業務框架協議》項下擬進行的交易將構成 本公司於上市規則第14A章項下的持續關連交易。 由於根據上市規則就《2026至2028年度存款業務框架協議》項下年度上限計算的 最高適用百分比率超出5%但低於25%，根據上市規則第14A章，本公司須遵守 有關申報、公告、年度審閱及獨立股東批准的規定。同時，《2026至2028年度存 款業務框架協議》項下擬進行的交易亦構成本公司的須予披露交易，本公司須遵 守上 ...