房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 05 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 8.07 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 8.0 | 19.2 | 17.5 | 15.8 | 14.9 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招商蛇口 | 8.70 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0 ...

业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 04 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 周期往复，大浪淘金，胜者为王 看好 ——房地产链白皮书：房地产篇 本期投资提示： 房地产业一直是我国国民经济的支柱产业，且地产链影响范围广泛。展望本轮周 期，当前政策宽松基调确定，地产链在经历基本面深度调整后，随着政策托底、基本 面自然企稳，预计需求将逐步复苏；开工端降幅最深、后续弹性可期；竣工端进入下 行通道、但二手房表现超预期，C 端竣工链更具优势。房地产板块方面，我们认为我 国一二手房总成交已稳、并已持续稳定近 3 年，但量价并未如期进入正向循环，因而 预计后续政策将更大力度推动房地产行业止跌回稳，并预计优质房企率已进入底部拐 点时刻，而好房子政策推动经营模式由金融业转向制造业，从而迎接 PB-ROE 的向上 突破。我们维持房 ...

Summary of Poly Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Property - **Industry**: Property Management Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Non-owner value-added services are declining due to the real estate cycle, although engineering services are providing some offset, leading to an overall decrease in performance [2][3] - The third-party market expansion revenue growth is faster than internal projects, but the lower gross margin impacts overall profitability [2][3] - In the first five months of 2025, market expansion exceeded expectations with contract amounts increasing year-on-year, focusing on core cities and high-quality clients [2][4] Financial Performance - For the first five months of 2025, the company achieved expected revenue growth of approximately 5%, but profit faced pressure due to a reduction in non-owner value-added services and structural factors in basic property management [3] - The company aims for a total external expansion target of 3 billion yuan for the year, maintaining quality while ensuring good reputation in core cities [5][10] Revenue and Payment Collection - C-end payment pressure has increased since the second half of 2024, continuing into 2025, with a noticeable decline in C-end collection rates [7] - B-end and G-end collections are affected by seasonal factors and budget constraints, but the overall changes remain manageable as of May [7] - The company reported that property fee reductions have minimal impact, with less than 1% of projects experiencing price cuts, and the overall sentiment is stabilizing [8] Pricing and Service Quality - The proportion of price reduction projects in 2024 was low, primarily in second and third-tier cities, with adjustments made through negotiation rather than exiting the market [9] - Owners' demands focus on cost-effectiveness and service quality improvements, with a small percentage of projects experiencing price cuts [9][11] Profitability and Cost Management - Profitability is under pressure due to the decline in non-owner value-added services and slower-than-expected progress in new business lines [10] - The gross margin is facing pressure due to an increase in third-party project contributions, which typically have lower margins [13] - The company is implementing cost-reduction measures, including the use of AI and robotics to enhance operational efficiency [19] Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 50% and aims to continue enhancing cash returns to investors, with future dividends to be determined based on year-end discussions and investor feedback [15][18] Technology and Innovation - The introduction of AI and robotics is expected to significantly improve operational efficiency in property management, with pilot projects already underway [19] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on the long-term demand for quality services and living experiences, despite current market pressures [16][17] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on high-quality projects, such as large contracts with strong payment capabilities, to ensure both volume and quality in its market expansion [6][10]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 29 日 加快构建新发展模式，一二手成交 周环比回升 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/06/21-2025/06/27） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 告 房地产 ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比回升，新房成交推盘比下降。 上周（25/6/21- 25/6/27）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 379 万平米，环比+51%；其中，一二线环比 +56%、三四线环比-0.2%；6 月一手房月成交同比-13%，较 5 月-3.5pct；其中，一二线 同比-11%、三四线同比-26%，分别较 5 月-1pct 和-32pct。上周 13 个重点城市二手房成 交 ...

2025 年 1-5 月，保利物业合同金额同比增长中高个位数，超出年初预 期，但回款率略有下滑，公司已加大回款力度。新增项目聚焦核心城市、 核心业态及大客户，如广州地铁和武汉金山软件产业园等，符合公司发 展方向。 2025 年 1-5 月，公司净利润实现正增长，但可能未达到全年 5%的增速 指引，而收入端已达到 5%的增速指引。基础物业管理服务是主要增长 驱动力，预计增速可达 10%，其中第三方拓展业务增速快于系统内业务。 保利地产新交付项目平均物业费单价显著提升，2024 年接近 2.8 元， 高于所有在管保利地产项目的均价 2.4 元，主要受益于保利地产聚焦一 线和强二线城市的高端化策略。 公司积极寻求并购机会，已增加并购团队人手，考察潜在标的。当前市 场环境对买方有利，竞争较少，价格回落至合理区间，但具体落地仍需 耐心。 2024 年非业主增值服务收入同比下滑，占比 12.0%。为应对传统业务 下滑，公司成立工程服务业务，但预计 2025 年上半年及全年该板块整 体仍将呈现下滑趋势。 Q&A 贵公司 2025 年 1-5 月经营情况与全年业绩指引相比，收入和利润表现如何？ 2025 年 1-5 月，公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development industry [6] Core Insights - The land market in core cities continues to show strong activity, with the average transaction price of residential land in 30 core cities increasing by 24% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [1] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 26.2% during the same period [1] - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 42% year-on-year increase in the value of newly acquired land reserves, despite a slight decrease of 1% in the area of new land reserves [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first five months of 2025, the total area of land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a total supply of 484 million square meters [11] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 69.91 million square meters, down 3.4% year-on-year [21] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - The average transaction price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 26% year-on-year, reaching 7,466 yuan per square meter [58] - The average transaction price in first-tier cities was 42,605 yuan per square meter, up 50.6% year-on-year [68] 3. Land Acquisition by Top 50 Real Estate Companies - The top 50 real estate companies acquired land worth 4,218 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a 42% increase year-on-year [2][82] - The top three companies in terms of newly acquired land value were Poly Developments (41.3 billion yuan), Greentown China (39.4 billion yuan), and China Jinmao (36 billion yuan) [2][91] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in 30 Core Cities - In May 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in the 30 core cities was 667 million square meters, an increase of 64.3% year-on-year [97] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in these cities was 9.2%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][97] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong comprehensive development capabilities and high product reputation, such as China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments [109] - It also recommends looking into commercial public REITs and property service companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land and Greentown Service [110]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 22 日 销量同比震荡回落，新开工同比负增长收窄 房地产行业最新观点及 25 年 1-5 月数据深度解读 总量研究/房地产 5 月房地产开发投资金额基期调整同比增速为-12.0%（较上月减少 0.7pct）， 投资同比同步于施工面积同比回落，过去一段时间销售市场热度回升带动下 的施工强度提升或相对有限，或反映去库存仍是房企的重要目标； ❑ 5 月到位资金基期调整同比增速为-10.1%（较上月减少 4.8pct），结构上， "国内贷款"同比增速持续高于"新开工"或与"白名单"融资模式下部分 房企借新还旧以及调整融资渠道等有关，"自筹资金"同比增速趋势与"新 开工"基本一致；"销售类到位资金"同比同步于"销售金额"回落； 5 月末房地产资金链指数趋势回落（111%），当前仍处于历史较低水平，往 后看，在供需两端政策逐步落地下，部分企业资金面有望进一步改善； 5 月 70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大。5 月 70 城新房房价环比-0.22%（环比负 增速幅度较上月扩大 0.10pct），其中，新房房价一线城市环比-0.2%，二线 环比-0.2%，三线环比-0.3% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) rates but a reduction in year-on-year (YoY) declines. The overall new housing price YoY decline has narrowed to 4.1% [8][14] - The second-hand housing prices have also shown a narrowing YoY decline of 6.3%, although the MoM decline has expanded to -0.5% [21][8] - The report highlights that the market is expected to stabilize further due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, alongside ongoing urban renewal projects [8] Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In May 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased MoM by -0.2%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with the overall decline across 70 cities being -0.2%, an increase in the decline compared to April [14][16] - YoY, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -1.7%, -3.5%, and -4.9% respectively, with the overall YoY decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% [14][16] Second-Hand Housing Prices - The second-hand housing prices in May 2025 decreased MoM by -0.5%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -0.7%, -0.5%, and -0.5% respectively [21][23] - YoY, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities decreased by -6.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -2.7%, -6.1%, and -6.9% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline by 0.5 percentage points [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong credit ratings and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][29] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, including China Resources Land and Longfor Group [8][29] - Additionally, it highlights property management firms with high service quality under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [8][29]

行 业 研 究 2025 年 06 月 16 日 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，广 州全面取消限购限售—行业周报》 -2025.6.15 《新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更 新示范城市扩容 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.8 《城市更新示范城市扩容，去库存进 程有望提速 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.6 单月销售数据仍降，新房市场延续弱复苏趋势 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 5 月销售数据依旧承压，城市市场热度分化 国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-5 月商 ...

Summary of Poly Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Property - **Industry**: Property Management Key Points and Arguments Strategic Approach - Poly Property adopts a strategic follow-up approach, introducing mature technologies to optimize management systems and operations, such as digital command centers and seamless access, positively impacting the property management industry [2][4] Market Positioning - The company positions itself in the mid-to-high-end residential market, expanding into public facilities and state-owned commercial projects while focusing on quality residential projects [2][5] Financial Performance - Accounts receivable are well-controlled, with an expected balance of approximately 2.9 billion in 2024 and operating cash flow exceeding 2.3 billion, covering net profit by more than 1.5 times [2][6] - The company anticipates a 5% growth in revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, driven primarily by basic property management [3][19] Non-Residential Services - Non-residential value-added services have declined due to the real estate cycle, but segments like labor services and commercial office management have seen improvements [2][7] - The company has achieved advantages in the non-residential sector by focusing on core cities, key sectors, and quality clients while enhancing collection management [2][8] Risk Management - Poly Property has actively cleared risky projects, achieving a collection rate exceeding 85% in 2024 [2][9] Community Value-Added Services - The company focuses on home services and asset management within community value-added services, identifying opportunities in home renovation and community convenience consumption [2][10] Cash Reserves and Acquisition Plans - The company holds 10 billion in cash, primarily intended for acquisitions, with a focus on residential and state-owned enterprises [2][12] Expansion and Project Quality - In the first half of 2025, the company expanded its projects mainly in public facilities and state-owned commercial sectors, with residential projects accounting for about 10% [3][13] Competitive Strategy - Poly Property leverages its advantages in the convenience consumption sector, focusing on nurturing suitable business opportunities rather than competing directly with strong players [11] Future Growth Expectations - The company expects revenue growth of 5% in 2025, with core property management as the main driver, while non-owner value-added services are expected to decline slightly [19][20] Urban Renewal Opportunities - The company sees urban renewal as a significant growth opportunity, actively exploring projects while ensuring profitability and manageable collection risks [21] Additional Important Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of technology in reducing costs and improving operational efficiency in property management [4] - Despite pressures in the real estate market, the company maintains a positive outlook on the demand for quality services, indicating that premium pricing remains viable [5] - The company is committed to providing sustainable returns to investors, with a potential increase in dividend payout ratios in the future [18]