Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][26]. - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has been introduced to optimize local real estate regulations, which includes reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing housing fund loan limits [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-side adjustments in the real estate market have significantly improved the industry landscape, making it attractive for investment [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][6]. - Year-on-year, February saw a 24.5% decline in new home transactions across 34 cities compared to the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11][12]. - However, February's cumulative transactions showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 cities had a total of 120,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 3.1 times [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remains unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [26][27]. - The report notes significant policy changes in Shanghai, including adjustments to purchase eligibility for non-local residents and increased loan limits for first-time homebuyers [26][27]. - Guangzhou plans to invest 220 billion yuan in urban renewal by 2026, indicating a strong commitment to improving housing quality [30][31]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued a $355 million senior unsecured bond with a 3-year term and an interest rate of 11.8% [33][34]. - The report highlights the performance of various real estate stocks, noting that the SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market [34][35]. Sector Performance Review - The property management sector saw an average decline of 0.12%, while the SW Real Estate Index outperformed with a 1.08% increase [41][42]. - The report lists the top-performing real estate stocks, with notable gains from companies like *ST Rong Control and Heimu Dan, while others like Shanghai Development and Hainan Airport faced declines [35][38].

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2026 年 03 月 01 日 春节后"沪七条"新政卡点推出，释 放稳楼市强信号并示范全国 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/21-2026/2/27） 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、 ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Group 1 - The core property management business of Poly Property remains resilient, but non-owner value-added services are under pressure due to weak project deliveries and low sales activity, leading to a slowdown in growth momentum [1] - The forecast for revenue and profit for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 has been downgraded, but the target price has been raised from HKD 32 to HKD 36.6 based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times, which is 0.5 standard deviations below the five-year average [1] - The company maintains an "outperform" rating, emphasizing the defensive advantages of its state-owned enterprise background [1] Group 2 - On January 27, 2026, Poly Property announced a management adjustment, with former General Manager Yao Yucheng resigning and being succeeded by Wang Yingnan, who has 15 years of experience in the full chain of real estate development [2] - This personnel change is viewed as a strategic move by the Poly Group to strengthen the synergy between real estate and property management, aiming to enhance commercial asset operations and urban public service capabilities [2] Group 3 - In the past week (as of February 13, 2026), Poly Property's stock price fluctuated, with a high of HKD 34.12 on February 9 and a low of HKD 32.44 on February 13, resulting in a price range fluctuation of 5.06% [3] - The closing price on February 13 was HKD 32.72, reflecting a single-day decline of 2.09% and a cumulative decline of 1.45% over the past five days [3] - During the same period, the overall Hong Kong property service sector declined by 2.08%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi indicates a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for Poly Property (06049) for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 due to underperformance in value-added services [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for Poly Property for FY2025 and FY2026 have been lowered due to weaker-than-expected performance in value-added services [1] - The target price for Poly Property has been raised from HKD 32 to HKD 36.6, based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times, which is 0.5 standard deviations below the five-year average [1] Group 2: Business Performance - Despite the core property management business of Poly Property maintaining resilience, the overall growth momentum is expected to slow down due to weak project delivery in the industry and sluggish sales activities impacting non-owner value-added services [1] - The defensive advantage provided by the state-owned enterprise background is highlighted as a positive factor for the company's core business resilience [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for Poly Property (06049) for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 due to underperformance in value-added services [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for Poly Property for FY2025 and FY2026 have been lowered due to weaker-than-expected performance in value-added services [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 32 to HKD 36.6 based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times, which is 0.5 standard deviations below the five-year average [1] Group 2: Business Performance - Despite the core property management business maintaining overall resilience, the growth momentum is expected to slow down due to weak project delivery in the industry and sluggish sales activities impacting non-owner value-added services [1] - The defensive advantage provided by the state-owned enterprise background is highlighted as a positive factor for the company [1]

Group 1 - The core property management business of Poly Property remains resilient, but growth momentum is expected to slow due to weak project delivery and low sales activity impacting non-owner value-added services [1] - The report indicates a downgrade in revenue and profit forecasts for Poly Property for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 due to underperformance in value-added services [1] - Despite the downgrade, the target price for Poly Property has been raised from HKD 32 to HKD 36.6 based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 times, which is 0.5 standard deviations below the five-year average [1] Group 2 - The resilience of the core business and the defensive advantages provided by its state-owned enterprise background support the "outperform" rating maintained by the firm [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [4]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy is being reintroduced in Shanghai, which is expected to effectively stabilize housing prices and stimulate market activity [10][26]. - The policy focuses on acquiring second-hand homes to address inventory issues and enhance market liquidity, with specific criteria for eligible properties [10][26]. - The anticipated financial impact includes a potential market transaction increase of approximately 1,080 billion yuan, representing a 9% boost to total market transactions and a 24% increase in new home sales [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Background of the "Old-for-New" Policy - The central government has emphasized the need for policies that control inventory and improve supply, with the "old-for-new" initiative aligning closely with these goals [10][11]. 2. Historical Experience of "Old-for-New" - The "old-for-new" model is categorized into acquisition and assistance types, with the acquisition model being more effective in driving sales [16][21]. - The acquisition model has been implemented in over 20 cities, with a total of 14,520 units identified for trial [16][21]. 3. Shanghai's "Old-for-New" Policy - The policy aims to stabilize housing prices by focusing on second-hand homes, with specific requirements for properties built before 2000 and under 400 million yuan [3][10]. - The estimated funding requirement for the acquisition of 27,000 units is approximately 54 billion yuan, leveraging a 1:2 replacement ratio to maximize market impact [3][10]. 4. Feasibility of the Latest "Old-for-New" Policy - Shanghai is positioned as a key city for the implementation of this policy due to its strong government credibility and market stability [3][10]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has shown signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the average transaction cycle to 22.2 months and a 2% month-on-month price rebound [3][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current environment, characterized by improving transaction volumes and prices in the second-hand market, presents significant investment opportunities [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "group purchase property" model introduced by Poly Property aims to enhance property management quality in old and small residential communities in Shanghai, addressing long-standing governance challenges while promoting innovation in property services [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Challenges - Old and small residential communities in Shanghai face governance difficulties due to their outdated infrastructure, small scale, and scattered distribution [1]. - As of May 2025, there are 27,500 existing residential communities in Shanghai, with 82% of buildings over 20 years old [1]. - Property fees for old communities typically range from 0.4 yuan to 0.8 yuan per square meter per month, leading to insufficient funding for professional management and poor service quality [1]. - Structural issues include low property fees that only cover emergency repairs, while daily maintenance and service quality are lacking [1]. Group 2: Implementation of the Model - Twelve typical communities were selected as pilot projects to implement the "group purchase property" model, with Poly Property winning the bid to provide comprehensive property services [2]. - The model emphasizes a collaborative governance framework, leveraging advantages such as "multi-quick-good-economical" service delivery and a "grid + professional" management approach [2]. - The service fee for properties has been adjusted from 0.18 yuan per square meter to 0.6 or 0.8 yuan, reflecting a more sustainable pricing structure [3]. Group 3: Benefits of the Model - The "group purchase property" model breaks the cycle of low-quality services by enhancing management efficiency and rationalizing service prices, supported by government subsidies [5]. - It promotes resource optimization by allowing personnel to serve multiple communities, thus reducing waste from fixed staffing [5]. - The model establishes a six-part governance mechanism involving the street, community committees, property management, and residents, enhancing overall governance effectiveness [5].