黄金、美债、货币、现金大PK！谁才是真正的“避险之王”？

Group 1: Safe-Haven Assets Performance - Gold prices recently surpassed $3000, reaching a historical high due to concerns over economic recession and increased demand from central banks [1] - Despite a brief spike to nearly $3150, gold prices have stabilized above $3000, reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset [2] - Analysts from Bank of America maintain a target price of $3500 for gold, citing increased policy uncertainty under President Trump as a factor driving gold prices higher [2] Group 2: Currency Trends - The US dollar, typically viewed as a safe-haven currency, has faced significant declines following tariff announcements, raising questions about its safe-haven status [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the dollar's failure to strengthen suggests a potential threat to its safe-haven position, linked to a rising current account deficit [2][3] - Investors are increasingly turning to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both of which have seen rebounds amid market volatility [3] Group 3: US Treasury Bonds - US Treasury bonds are traditionally considered "risk-free" investments, with their value typically rising during economic turmoil [3] - Historical performance post-2008 financial crisis showed that US Treasuries were one of the few asset classes to appreciate, even experiencing negative yields at times [3] - Recent aggressive selling in the US Treasury market has raised concerns about its traditional safe-haven status, with significant increases in bond yields observed [5] Group 4: Defensive Stocks - Defensive stocks, such as Costco, tend to maintain stable performance regardless of economic conditions, providing essential goods and services [5] - Despite a slight decline in Costco's stock price, it has remained relatively stable compared to other retailers like Walmart and Amazon, which have seen more significant drops [5] Group 5: Cash as a Safe-Haven - Cash is viewed as a safe-haven asset due to its lack of investment risk, although it can depreciate in value during inflationary periods [6] - Some analysts prefer bonds over cash for their potential yield and appreciation opportunities, despite cash's stability [6]