CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 新华财经·2025-04-10 07:55Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration of China has announced the nationwide promotion of the "immediate refund" service for outbound travelers, enhancing the shopping experience for foreign tourists and potentially boosting the inbound tourism market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "immediate refund" policy allows foreign travelers to receive a refund in RMB at the point of purchase after signing an agreement and pre-authorizing a credit card, creating a "shopping-refund-reconsume" cycle [1]. - This policy is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of shopping in China for foreign tourists, especially in conjunction with the "240-hour" visa-free policy and recent RMB exchange rate trends [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Previous trials of the "immediate refund" policy in cities like Shanghai and Beijing have already shown substantial growth in inbound consumption, with the number of travelers, sales of refund-eligible goods, and total refunds increasing by 2.3 times, 1.2 times, and 1.3 times respectively in 2024 [2]. - Analysts predict that if the penetration rate of outbound tax refund travelers reaches 15%, it could result in approximately 21.8 million travelers annually, leading to a potential sales volume of 109 billion RMB in future years [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the "immediate refund" policy, stocks in the duty-free sector have surged, with companies like Zhongbai Group experiencing multiple trading halts due to price increases, and China Duty Free's stock rising over 24% in three trading days [3].