Nvidia Stock Dropped 35% From Its High. History Says This Will Happen Next.

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has been a significant beneficiary of the generative AI boom, with its stock price increasing dramatically since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, peaking at $149.43 per share by January 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Historical Context - Nvidia's stock has experienced a 35% decline recently due to trade tensions and concerns over AI infrastructure spending sustainability [2] - Historically, Nvidia shares have rebounded after similar declines, averaging a 305% return in the two years following drawdowns exceeding 35% [4] - Over the past decade, Nvidia's stock price increased by 17,400%, despite facing three significant drawdowns of over 35% [3][4] Group 2: Market Position and Demand - Nvidia holds a dominant market position with approximately 98% market share in data center GPUs and over 85% in AI accelerators [6] - Concerns have arisen regarding competition from DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, which may impact demand for Nvidia's GPUs [7] - Despite potential competition, analysts expect overall demand for Nvidia GPUs to increase as AI becomes more accessible and costs decrease [9] Group 3: Future Growth Opportunities - Nvidia is well-positioned to benefit from various applications beyond generative AI, including autonomous vehicles and robotics, which will drive demand for its products [9][10] - The AI accelerator market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 29%, suggesting durable revenue growth for Nvidia [13] - Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's earnings to grow at 38% annually through fiscal 2027, indicating that the current valuation of 32 times earnings is attractive [14] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - While Nvidia may face increased competition from ASICs developed by Broadcom and Marvell, the threat is not as significant as perceived [11] - Nvidia's GPUs are supported by a comprehensive suite of software development tools, which provides a competitive edge over ASICs that require companies to develop applications from scratch [12] - Despite potential market share loss, Nvidia's GPUs are expected to account for over 80% of AI accelerator sales by 2030 [13] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Nvidia shares are currently down 35% from their peak, but the company has a history of rebounding from larger losses [15] - The long-term growth potential and current valuation suggest that Nvidia stock is a worthwhile investment for patient investors [15]