1 Nasdaq-100 Subscription-Based Business That Could Succeed Under the New Tariff Environment (Hint: I'm Not Talking About Netflix)

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is experiencing a sell-off due to concerns over new tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, with the Nasdaq-100 index dropping by 11% since April 2. However, Costco is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity amidst these concerns due to its unique business model and financial profile [1][2]. Company Financials - For the quarter ended February 16, Costco reported net sales of $62.5 billion and total revenue of $63.7 billion, with merchandise costs at $55.7 billion and operating income of $2.3 billion. Membership fees contributed $1.2 billion to total revenue, indicating a significant recurring revenue stream [4][5]. - Costco's operating expenses totaled $61.4 billion, suggesting a thin margin on merchandise sales, which is typical for brick-and-mortar retailers [4]. Membership Model - The subscription model of Costco, which generates high profit margins, is expected to help the company withstand the impact of tariffs. This model differentiates Costco from other retailers like Walmart and Target [6][5]. - CEO Ron Vachris indicated that about one-third of Costco's U.S. sales are imported, with less than half of those from countries directly targeted by tariffs, providing some reassurance regarding the company's exposure to tariff impacts [8]. Market Positioning - Costco's bulk-buying model and competitive pricing may attract cost-conscious consumers, potentially increasing foot traffic and membership volume as tariffs affect the retail economy [9][10]. - Compared to traditional retailers, Costco may be better positioned to navigate the tariff environment, as consumers may seek alternatives that offer better value [10]. Valuation Insights - Costco's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 50, significantly higher than the average of 20 for the S&P 500, indicating that while the stock is not cheap, it has normalized from a peak of nearly 60 earlier in the year [11][13]. - Despite near-term uncertainties, Costco is seen as well-prepared to manage the effects of tariffs, particularly on its high-margin subscription business, suggesting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [14].