中信证券秦培景：中国科技资产重估 全球定价权将提升

Core Viewpoint - The recent "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US has caused significant global asset volatility, particularly affecting the technology sector, while the resilience of Chinese assets has become more evident after a pullback. Major institutions remain optimistic about the technology sector in China [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has led the way in the "revaluation of Chinese assets," despite recent volatility, indicating potential for growth [2] - Global capital's risk appetite for Chinese assets has significantly increased, driven by factors such as technological maturity and international competition [2] - The revaluation of Chinese assets is a process of repricing driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of April 10, the dynamic P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Index is at approximately 56.06% percentile since 2010, while the CSI 300 Index is at about 43.64% percentile [4] - Current valuations of Chinese assets are not considered expensive compared to historical performance and major global markets [4] - The technology sector in A-shares has entered a phase of differentiation after a period of valuation expansion, with high-growth areas like AI showing elevated P/E ratios [4][5] Group 3: Future Trends - The revaluation process is expected to unfold along three paths: technological breakthroughs, policy multiplier effects, and industrial chain value restructuring [5][6] - The future pricing logic for technology will shift towards "R&D-driven valuation," moving from traditional P/E to a dual model of "main business P/E + innovative business P/S" [6][7] - The collaboration of technology, capital, and policy will drive the efficiency of capital allocation and value discovery in the technology sector [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy" to mitigate volatility, with a focus on the Hong Kong internet and AI technology sectors, which are seen as having strong competitive advantages [8][9] - The attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks to southbound funds is expected to strengthen as valuation anchors shift and risk premiums are redefined [9] - The differentiation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will deepen along three axes: funding attributes, industrial mapping, and policy elasticity [9]