NU Stock Declines 27% in Six Months: Is This a Purchase Level?

Core Viewpoint - Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) has experienced a significant stock decline of nearly 27% over the past six months, contrasting sharply with the 6% growth in the industry [1] Company Performance - NU's performance is notably weaker compared to peers, with Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) declining approximately 11% during the same period, while SoFi Technologies (SOFI) surged over 26% [2][3] - The company has a diversified revenue model that includes lending, interchange fees, and marketplace services, which helps mitigate risks and provides stability during economic uncertainties [6] - In the fourth quarter, NU reported a 24% year-over-year revenue increase, indicating robust financial performance [8] Customer Growth and Market Position - NU has added 4.5 million customers in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing its global customer count to 114.2 million, driven by its digital-first strategy [5] - The company is expanding its operations across Latin America, particularly in Mexico and Colombia, where adoption is accelerating [5] Financial Metrics - NU's trailing 12-month Return on Equity (ROE) is 30.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 11.1% [9] - The trailing 12-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at 12.5%, well above the industry average of 3% [11] Earnings and Sales Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NU's 2025 earnings is 54 cents, indicating a 20% growth from the previous year, with expected earnings growth of 45.7% in 2026 [13] - Sales are projected to grow by 33.7% and 26.3% year-over-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [13] Valuation Concerns - NU stock is currently trading at 17.77 times forward earnings, more than double the sector's average of 8.58 times, reflecting market optimism about its growth potential [14] - The high valuation introduces risks, as any earnings shortfall or slower growth could lead to a sharp correction [14] Investment Outlook - While NU's innovative fintech model and strong financial performance justify its valuation, the current price levels may limit near-term upside potential [15] - Existing investors may consider holding positions for long-term growth, while new investors might wait for a pullback before entering [15]