Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-11 00:40Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, projecting a range of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 283% to 303% [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in profitability for Q1 2025, driven by an increase in average pig prices and sales volume, alongside ongoing optimization of breeding costs [2] - The total sales volume for Q1 2025 includes 18.396 million market pigs (up 15% year-on-year), 4.149 million piglets (up 595% year-on-year), and 113,000 breeding pigs (up 5.6% year-on-year) [2] - The breeding sow inventory at the end of Q1 stands at 3.485 million, a slight decrease of 0.8% from the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Cost Management - The total breeding cost for market pigs has decreased to 12.5 yuan/kg by March, indicating a significant cost advantage [2] - The company is focusing on the development of low-soybean meal feed technology, which allows for flexible feed formulation and continuous improvement in production performance [2] - The potential fluctuations in feed prices due to tariff wars are expected to have a limited impact on the company's breeding costs, with prices likely to be passed on to end consumers, benefiting the company [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company's strategic focus has shifted from rapid expansion to cost management, with anticipated reductions in capital expenditures, leading to a more robust capital structure in the future [2] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 140.35 billion, 143.52 billion, and 152.70 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.377 billion, 15.945 billion, and 21.575 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 16.03, 14.46, and 10.69 times, maintaining a "recommended" rating for investment [3]