山西证券：海外市场铜光共进 关注技术和产品迭代拔估值机会

Group 1: AI Computing Power - The AI computing power is driven by three curves: pre-training, post-training, and reasoning thinking chains, with significant growth expected in overseas capital expenditure by 2025 [1] - Copper connections are currently the optimal solution for scaling up, with Nvidia being the largest customer for copper connections in 2025, and ASIC deployment accelerating [1] - Light modules are anticipated to contribute the most to AI chain performance in 2025, with trends in CPO and OIO becoming clearer [1] Group 2: Domestic Investment Trends - The domestic AI innovation applications are rapidly increasing, with significant capital expenditure growth observed in Q3 2024 from major companies [2] - The AIDC infrastructure supply chain is expected to benefit first, with considerable domestic substitution potential in various segments such as UPS, liquid cooling, and cooling towers [2] - The server segment is highly favored for capital expenditure, with a cost ratio of overseas H100 servers, light modules, and switches approximately at 16:2:1 [2] Group 3: IoT Market Potential - 2025 is projected to be a breakout year for AIoT, with expected value enhancement from AI computing power and new product categories [3] - The global IoT market is in a recovery phase, with AI terminals expected to emerge first in consumer IoT, leading to increased communication demands among AI agents in industrial IoT [3] - Key markets such as outdoor robots, desktop robots, and smart cockpits are anticipated to see significant growth [3] Group 4: Low Earth Orbit Satellite Opportunities - The domestic commercial space launch capabilities are expected to experience significant advancements, with 2025 marking a period of accelerated launches and commercial operations [4] - The "flight-like" launch approach will enhance predictability in low Earth orbit satellite investments, improving market sentiment [4] - The TianTong mobile phone's direct satellite connection remains the mainstream satellite communication solution, with Huawei's Mate X6 set to initiate a new era of direct low Earth orbit connections in 2025 [4]