Alcoa(AA) ZACKS·2025-04-11 14:20Core Viewpoint - Alcoa is expected to report significant growth in quarterly earnings and revenues, with earnings per share projected at 3.47 billion, reflecting a 33.6% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 20.7%, indicating a reassessment by analysts of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Total sales- Aluminum' at 110.67 million, indicating a 72.9% increase from the previous year [5]. - 'Third-party sales- Aluminum' are expected to be 1.37 billion, a 53% increase from the year-ago quarter [6]. - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina is projected to be 372 in the same quarter last year [6]. - The consensus estimate for the average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum is 2,620 a year ago [7]. - 'Third-party alumina shipments' are expected to reach 2,179.33 Kmt, down from 2,397 Kmt reported last year [7]. - 'Third-party aluminum shipments' are projected at 637.32 Kmt, slightly up from 634 Kmt in the same quarter last year [8]. Production Estimates - 'Aluminum production' is estimated at 571.57 Kmt, compared to 542 Kmt in the previous year [9]. - 'Bauxite production' is forecasted at 9.75 Mmt, down from 10.1 Mmt reported last year [9]. - 'Intersegment Alumina Shipments' are expected to be 1,066.83 Kmt, up from 943 Kmt year-over-year [8]. - 'Alumina production' is projected to reach 2,376.16 Kmt, down from 2,670 Kmt reported last year [8]. Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have decreased by 26.5% over the past month, contrasting with a 6.1% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9].