2024俄罗斯电子商务分析报告（上）-维卓

Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The Russian economy is heavily reliant on natural resource exports and has a significant military industrial sector. From 2019 to 2029, per capita GDP is expected to grow, but its share of global GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity, is projected to decline to 2.71% by 2029 [1][3] - Actual GDP growth rates fluctuated between 2020 and 2022, while the total population remained relatively stable from 2019 to 2023, with predictions extending to 2029. The economy faces multiple sanctions from Western countries post-Ukraine conflict, leading to volatile inflation rates [1][3] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - From 2021 to February 2024, the growth rate of Russian imports has been volatile, with an anticipated increase in China's export share to Russia. Trade with the EU is expected to decline from 2023 to 2031, while trade with ASEAN and China is projected to see the largest growth [1][3] - In 2022, Russia had one of the highest trade surpluses globally, primarily importing machinery, chemicals, and food, while exporting minerals, metals, and related products [1][3] Group 3: E-commerce Growth - The Russian e-commerce market is expected to continue expanding from 2011 to 2027, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in 2022. The share of e-commerce in retail and GDP is increasing annually [2][3] - Domestic e-commerce is growing significantly, while cross-border e-commerce has declined due to the war, but is expected to rebound as geopolitical tensions ease. Wildberry and Ozon are leading players in the domestic e-commerce landscape [2][3] Group 4: E-commerce Logistics - E-commerce shipment volumes in Russia grew steadily from 2019 to 2021, with a 78% increase in 2021. Wildberry and Ozon dominate the delivery market, accounting for over 80% of total delivery volume in Q3 2023 [2][3] - Revenue in the delivery market has been consistently rising from 2018 to 2022, with Wildberry having the most pickup points in 2022, influenced by factors such as location and store hours [2][3] Group 5: Market Potential - The Russian e-commerce market shows strong growth potential despite challenges such as sanctions. Domestic e-commerce is expanding rapidly, and cross-border e-commerce may find opportunities as the situation stabilizes. Companies entering the Russian market should consider macroeconomic changes and e-commerce logistics characteristics [3]