紫金矿业(601899)：单季利润创新高 真金不怕火炼

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q1 2025 results with revenue of 78.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76%. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.17 billion, up 62.39% year-on-year and 32.15% quarter-on-quarter, meeting expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - Year-on-year, the company's Q1 net profit increased by 3.906 billion, primarily due to a gross profit increase of 5.65 billion, driven by rising copper and gold prices. The gross profit from the mining of gold and copper increased by 3.29 billion and 1.79 billion respectively, while other business segments contributed an additional 720 million [1] - Quarter-on-quarter, the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 2.474 billion, mainly due to a gross profit increase of 1.2 billion, significantly influenced by rising copper and gold prices. The production volumes for gold and copper increased by 6.92% and 7.33% respectively, attributed to capacity ramp-up from various projects [2] - The prices of gold and copper increased by 11.98% and 5.05% respectively quarter-on-quarter, while costs for gold and copper rose by 6.82% and 0.43% respectively [2] Growth Drivers - The copper production is expected to grow organically, with significant contributions from world-class mining clusters in Serbia, Congo, and Tibet from 2025 to 2028. The gold production is also set to increase with multiple projects progressing, including the resumption of operations at Bogala and other mines [3] - The company has made several acquisitions since 2024, including stakes in Solaris Resources and Montage Gold, as well as controlling interests in La Arena copper-gold mine and Akyem gold mine [3] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The company's valuation is at historical lows, with a recent buyback of 643.2 million shares for 1 billion, indicating confidence in the stock. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 41.8 billion, 46.1 billion, and 48.2 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x based on the closing price on April 11 [3]