◎记者 王乔琪 紫金矿业预计今年上半年盈利232亿元，洛阳钼业预计上半年盈利82亿元至91亿元，西部黄金、山东黄 金、中润资源、华钰矿业等预计业绩增幅上限均超过100%……近期，上市矿企频频报喜。 支撑矿企业绩大增的，是主营产品量价齐升。据统计，今年上半年，金、铜、钴等价格均呈上涨态势， 其中黄金价格年内涨幅超过25%。紫金矿业、洛阳钼业纷纷出手并购金矿，拓展资源版图，同时加快旗 下项目的建设进度，释放产量赶上这一轮行情。 量价齐升矿企预喜 近期，10余家上市矿企密集发布半年度业绩预告，主营产品量价齐升成为关键词。 紫金矿业以232亿元预盈规模拔得头筹，同比增长54%。这一盈利水平已超越2023年全年，创下同期历 史新高。此外，公司预计今年第二季度实现归母净利润约130亿元，相比一季度增加约28亿元，环比增 长约27% 紧随其后的是洛阳钼业，预计上半年实现归母净利润82亿元至91亿元，同比增长51.37%至67.98%。以 预测下限计算，公司上半年盈利与2023年全年基本持平，达到2024年全年的61%。 从产量上看，两大矿业巨头主要产品产量任务均已过半。紫金矿业今年上半年实现矿产铜57万吨、矿产 金41吨， ...

从中证A100稳定指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比69.62%、深圳证券交易所占比 30.38%。 从中证A100稳定指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比23.09%、金融占比16.13%、主要消费占比 13.13%、医药卫生占比10.44%、原材料占比9.04%、可选消费占比8.74%、公用事业占比5.86%、信息技 术占比5.67%、能源占比4.02%、通信服务占比3.88%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。每次调整的样本比例一般不超过10%。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将 其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 金融界7月15日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，中证A100稳定指数 (A100稳定，H30272)报4591.97 点。 数据统计显示，中证A100稳定指数近一个月上涨2.45%，近三个月上涨5.37%，年至今上涨3.32%。 据了解，中证A100、中证200动态和稳定指数分别以各自基准指数为样本空间，根据波动率因子和质量 因子计算敏感性评分，选取对宏 ...

有色金属 2025 年 07 月 15 日 紫金矿业 (601899) ——25H1 业绩预告超预期，量价齐升充分受益金铜上行 周期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 上 市 公 司 | 买入（维持） | | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 年 07 月 15 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 19.12 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 20.49/13.94 | | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 1.99 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 393,641 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,505.00/10,744.56 | | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.43 | | 资产负债率% | 54.89 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 26,578/20,588 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/5,989 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-15 08-15 09-15 10-15 11-1 ...

行 行业周报 海外关税扰动性加大，国内"反内卷"提振情绪 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 07 月 15 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 山东黄金 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 04/15 05/15 06/15 钢铁：行业库存压力尚可，体现出供需矛盾有限；原料端价格回暖，成本端对 价格下方有支撑；"反内卷"消息提振市场信心，预计短期钢价将偏强震荡。 铜：目前矿端供应偏紧和低库存对价格下方有支撑，美国的关税政策加大贸 易不确定性，短期铜价或承压。 铝：海外宏观不确定性仍存，国内低库存对铝价有支撑，部分下游需求在淡季 内难有起色，整体看预计短期铝价震荡运行。 黄金：关税和贸易不确定性对短期金价有支撑，后续可关注海外经济数据、海 外关税政策、海外降息预 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a wave of impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with several companies showing significant growth and large-scale leaders emerging [1] - Southern Precision (002553) leads the net profit growth ranking with an astonishing increase of nearly 300 times, driven by investment income [1][2] - Huayin Power (600744) and Sanhe Pile (003037) follow with net profit growth exceeding 30 times, indicating strong performance in their respective sectors [1][2] Group 2 - Southern Precision forecasts a net profit of 200 million to 250 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28,647% to 35,784% [2] - The significant growth for Southern Precision is attributed to changes in the fair value of external investments and gains from the reduction of external investment equity, impacting pre-tax profit by approximately 174 million to 194 million yuan [2] - Huayin Power ranks second with a 36-fold increase in net profit, primarily due to increased power generation and reduced fuel costs [3] Group 3 - Sanhe Pile ranks third with a nearly 31-fold increase in net profit, driven by market demand and a focus on core business areas, particularly in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and hydropower [3] - China Shenhua (601088) remains the "profit king" despite a slight decline in performance, with a net profit forecast of 236 million yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year [4][5] - Zijin Mining (601899) ranks second in net profit scale with 232 million yuan, benefiting from a 25.84% increase in international gold prices and a 17% rise in gold production [6] Group 4 - Guotai Junan (601211) ranks third in net profit scale with 152.83 million yuan, attributed to rapid growth in wealth management and proprietary investment businesses [6] - The coal industry outlook is improving due to seasonal demand increases and regulatory policies, with current coal prices at a temporary low [5]

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - The report highlights a significant market perception gap regarding silver, emphasizing that its long-term price trends are more closely correlated with gold than industrial demand [8]. - It argues that the market has overestimated the impact of industrial demand on silver prices while underestimating the investment demand driven by its financial attributes [8]. - The report suggests that even with a decline in photovoltaic demand, silver may still maintain a supply-demand gap due to recovering investment demand [8]. Group 2: Company Performance and Financials - The report indicates that the company achieved a record revenue of 30.332 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with beverage business revenue growing by 8.2% [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.849 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 10.9% increase year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and cost reductions [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 2.21 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 13.2%, and 10.6% respectively [11]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The report notes that the REITs market is expected to continue to heat up in 2025 due to a low interest rate environment and macroeconomic recovery, with a focus on asset resilience and market pricing [12]. - It highlights the importance of the PCB and switch market, driven by the growing demand for high-performance networks and AI applications, with projected revenue growth for the company in the coming years [13]. - The report emphasizes the successful trial production of a mixed waste plastic resource utilization project, which is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth trajectory in the waste recycling sector [14][15]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "buy" rating for the company, citing its strong operational barriers, high dividend attributes, and the essential nature of its products, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer demand and cost advantages [11]. - It also suggests that the company’s innovative capabilities and strategic management will enhance its market position and profitability in the long term [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's operating performance has reached a new high, with significant year-on-year growth in net profit and operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 [1][5][9]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [1][5]. - The expected non-net profit is around 215 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [1][5]. - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of about 130 billion yuan, up 27% from Q1 [5][6]. Production and Sales - Zijin Mining's production of key minerals such as copper, gold, and silver has increased, with production levels reaching about 50% of the annual targets [2][7]. - The company reported a significant increase in lithium carbonate production, reaching 7,315 tons, a year-on-year growth of nearly 30 times [3][7]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company's strong performance is attributed to strategic acquisitions, including a 137.29 billion yuan acquisition of a 24.82% stake in Zangge Mining, which provided control over additional resources [3][10]. - Zijin Mining continues to pursue acquisitions, including a recent plan to acquire 100% of the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD [11]. Resource Base - As of the end of 2024, Zijin Mining's total resource base includes over 110 million tons of copper, 4,000 tons of gold, and significant amounts of lithium and silver, positioning the company as a key player in the energy transition metals market [10][12]. - The company has shown consistent growth in its resource base, with increases in copper, gold, and silver reserves reported [10][12].

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周工业金属商品走弱，主要源于降息预期减弱及美国对铜收税：1）就业数据改善叠加美国对 等关税恶化提升通胀预期，本周联储降息预期弱化，美元与美债因此反弹，压制工业金属商品； 2）美商务部长表示将对铜征税 50%，引发后续非美地区需求担忧，非美铜价受挫。国家极为 重视稀土行业，持续强化对资源及冶炼的掌控力度，而在中美贸易摩擦如何演绎仍具备不确定 性的当下，稀土的中长期战略价值凸显。同时海外加速稀土产业链构建，并意图积极扩大稀土 冶炼和磁材加工能力。 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 稀土再得价值重估，重视白银补涨弹性 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

本报记者 李婷 Wind数据显示，截至7月14日，A股市场已有29家有色金属板块上市公司发布了2025年半年度业绩预 告。其中，27家企业预计报告期内实现归母净利润同比增长。 屈放进一步表示，当前矿业龙头并购已从过去单纯的规模扩张转向战略资源卡位与技术整合并重，全球 资源版图正在重构。同时，资本向优质龙头集中，龙头企业可以凭借融资优势扩大布局，为后续发展奠 定基础。 紫金矿业在今年上半年实现了多个主营矿产品种的持续放量。公司披露，上半年实现矿产铜57万吨、矿 产金41吨，分别同比增长10%、17%。其中，矿产金产量显著释放，增速节节攀升，第二季度单季产量 达22吨。 紫金矿业董秘办相关负责人向《证券日报》记者表示，强大的技术和建设运营能力，是公司的核心优势 之一。对重资产属性的矿企而言，加速推进在建项目，节省的远不止时间成本。其中，铜板块方面，公 司西藏巨龙铜矿二期按期推进，多个关键工程上半年已提前完成，并将于今年底建成投产；卡莫阿铜矿 50万吨/年铜冶炼厂将于2025年9月份点火。 紫金矿业旗下一批重点金铜项目也正迎来新突破。其中，公司参股的山东海域金矿已于6月底实现选矿 厂带水试车，为投产运营奠定基础。 ...

估值水平方面，不少绩优股市盈率和市净率处在较低水平。据数据宝统计，截至7月14日收盘，上述269 只股票中，34股滚动市盈率低于20倍，其中傲农生物、新和成、牧原股份、步步高市盈率不到11倍。此 外，三钢闽光、金能科技、凤凰股份、吉林敖东、百隆东方等市净率处于破净状态。 资金面上，部分绩优股获得融资客大手笔加仓。据数据宝统计，上述269只股票中，7月以来融资净买入 超亿元的有18只，如紫金矿业、北方稀土、赛力斯、华钰矿业、大金重工等。 7月以来融资净买入额最高的是紫金矿业，达到6.2亿元。公司7月13日发布的业绩预告显示，预计2025 年上半年净利润约232亿元，同比增长约54%，报告期内，公司主营产品矿产金、矿产铜、矿产锌、矿 产银销售价格同比上升。 据数据宝统计，按预告净利润下限计算（若无下限则取公告数值），已披露2025年半年度业绩预告的股 票中，共有269只上半年盈利且同比增速在30%以上（含扭亏为盈）。盈利增速来看，上半年净利润预 增幅度在100%以上（含扭亏为盈）的股票有141只。净利润增速最高的是华银电力，公司预计上半年净 利润为1.8亿元至2.2亿元（未经审计），同比增速超过36倍。净利润增速 ...