Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals industry, indicating an upward cycle despite liquidity disturbances [2][3]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts and changing market sentiment towards AI narratives have led to fluctuations in base metal prices. However, the fundamentals for energy metals remain strong, with prices trending upwards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Market sentiment is affected by volatility in risk assets and central banks reducing gold reserves. The Federal Reserve's mixed economic assessments and fluctuating expectations for a December rate cut dominate the market [5][7]. - Gold prices as of November 21: SHFE gold decreased by 3.36% to 926.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold fell by 0.77% to 4062.80 USD/oz [7][25]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces as of the end of October, marking 12 consecutive months of growth [7]. 2. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure due to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. As of November 21, SHFE copper decreased by 1.43% to 85,660 CNY/ton, and LME copper fell by 0.69% to 10,777.5 USD/ton [10][22]. - The supply side is impacted by an accident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand remains strong, particularly from AI data centers and power grids [10][22]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to macroeconomic expectations. As of November 21, SHFE aluminum decreased by 2.29% to 21,340 CNY/ton, and LME aluminum fell by 2.54% to 2,786 USD/ton [9][22]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, while overseas supply concerns persist. The processing operating rate is steady at 62% [9][22]. 4. Energy Metals - The lithium sector shows strong demand, with lithium prices trending upwards. As of last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,100 tons, up by 585 tons, while inventory decreased by 2,052 tons [11]. - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while demand from the downstream sector is cautious [11]. 5. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have slightly increased before retreating, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. As of November 21, prices were 549,000 CNY/ton for praseodymium and neodymium, and 1,485,000 CNY/ton for dysprosium [12].

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 证 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 11 月 23 日 降息预期短期压制，板块高景气趋 势不变 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251117-20251121 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 3.90%，深证成指下跌 5.13%，沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，有色金属（申万）指 ...

"在设计阶段我们就考虑到运输限制，图纸提前报送中国船级社（CCS）预审，并邀请客户实地考 察自动化产线。"新能船业总工程师丁明师说，经过三轮技术磋商，紫金矿业最终认可了这一方案。 首艘船舶顺利下水，比合同节点提前9天完成，不仅体现了中国速度，也为解决内陆地区大型船舶 运输难题提供了可复制的样本。据介绍，"金航一号"总长70.08米，型宽15米，续航能力达1000海里。 为保障船舶长期稳定运营，新能船业还在坦桑尼亚设立了海外办事处，构建本地服务网络，并派驻 技术团队长期支援。 在国家"双碳"战略指引下，济宁能源集团依托京杭大运河"黄金水道"和内河航运全产业链优势，抢 抓内河船舶更新换代新机遇，与武汉理工大学、宁德时代等合作，建成投产全国首个集研发设计、智能 制造于一体的新能船业内河新能源船舶示范基地，开启"气化运河""电化运河"新赛道。目前，公司已具 备2000—5000吨级内河新能源船舶大规模批量化建造能力，在手各类订单船舶185艘，成功交付61艘。 （记者 吕光社 通讯员 冯劲舸） "所有单位，准备脱钩放船！"北京时间11月21日21：50，伴随着指挥的号令，由山东新能船业有限 公司（以下简称"新能船业"） ...

截至11月21日收盘，金属钴概念下跌6.57%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，赣锋锂业、海南矿业 等跌停，容百科技、寒锐钴业、中伟股份等跌幅居前。 | 600549 | 厦门钨业 | -5.76 | 2.83 | -8505.71 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601618 | 中国中冶 | -3.63 | 1.14 | -8127.47 | | 601969 | 海南矿业 | -9.98 | 3.40 | -8098.88 | | 002009 | 天奇股份 | -5.65 | 8.78 | -6296.96 | | 000758 | 中色股份 | -7.03 | 3.17 | -5535.08 | | 002266 | 浙富控股 | -5.45 | 2.34 | -5512.51 | | 000009 | 中国宝安 | -8.33 | 2.65 | -5465.50 | | 601390 | 中国中铁 | -2.16 | 0.78 | -4488.71 | | 000426 | 兴业银锡 | -5.67 | 3.09 | -4359.33 | | 301219 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the quarterly index review results for the Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Index, Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Select Index, and Hang Seng National Index ESG Enhanced Index, effective from December 8, 2025 [1] - The number of constituents in the Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Index will increase from 76 to 77, with the inclusion of Innovent Biologics (01801) and Zijin Mining (02899), while Cheung Kong (00001) will be removed [1][3] - The Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Select Index will also see the addition of Innovent Biologics (01801) and Zijin Mining (02899), increasing its constituents from 74 to 75, with Cheung Kong (00001) being excluded [3][4] Group 2 - The Hang Seng National Index ESG Enhanced Index will include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Yum China (09987), maintaining a total of 45 constituents [5] - The inclusion of these companies reflects a focus on ESG criteria within the indices [1][5]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the quarterly index review results for the Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Index, Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Select Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises ESG Enhanced Index, effective from December 8, 2025 [1] - The number of constituents in the Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Index will increase from 76 to 77, with the inclusion of Innovent Biologics (01801) and Zijin Mining Group (02899), while Cheung Kong (00001) will be removed [1][3] - The Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Select Index will also see the addition of Innovent Biologics (01801) and Zijin Mining Group (02899), increasing its constituents from 74 to 75, with Cheung Kong (00001) being removed [1][3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises ESG Enhanced Index will include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Yum China Holdings (09987), maintaining a total of 45 constituents [1][5] - The inclusion of these companies reflects a focus on enhancing the ESG profile of the indices [1]

证券研究报告/投资策略 多重因素推动黄金价格上涨，看好黄金中长期投资机会 黄金行业研究 投资要点 ➢ 美债信用走弱，突出黄金储备货币属性 建议关注工艺先进且具备资源量优势的紫金矿业、山东黄金和赤峰黄金。 ➢ 风险提示 建议关注美联储降息不及预期、经营安全生产以及扩产进度不及预期的风险。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 美国国债占GDP比例从2008年的60%升至2025年9月的119%，美债的大量增发 导致利息支出占GDP的比重攀升，美国政府利息负担加重，2024年美国净利息占 GDP比重已经超过3%，当前利息支出已超越国防开支，且预期将会持续增加，显 著加重了政府的财政负担，引发了市场对美国债务可持续性的担忧。标普、穆迪、 惠誉三大评级机构均已下调美国主权信用评级，美债信用走弱。 美国国债规模占GDP的比重整体而言与黄金价格大致呈现同向变动的趋势，美国 国债占GDP的比重由1993年的66.1%波动上升至2024年的124.1%，债务高速扩 张引发市场对美国主权信用的担忧，黄金因避险属性获得投资者的青睐，美国财 政负债率上升或带动金价中枢上行。 ➢ 美联储降息进程持续推进，利好金价未来走势 2025年上半年美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the metals industry, with price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions, and changing monetary policies, particularly regarding interest rates [2][4][6]. Group 1: Lithium Prices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% purity) and lithium hydroxide (56.5% purity) was 71,339.89 CNY/ton and 67,844.81 CNY/ton, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 25.17% and 21.47% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. - The price decline for lithium products has slowed in the first half of 2025, with a rebound observed in the third quarter, suggesting a potential turning point [5]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices have been supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold prices experiencing a significant upward trend in the third quarter of 2025 [3][6]. - The overall labor market remains balanced despite a decline in non-farm employment, indicating potential economic weakness and rising inflation concerns, which further support precious metal prices [3]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - The third quarter of 2025 saw increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which provided support for industrial metal prices, particularly copper, amid supply disruptions from incidents like the Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia [4][6]. - The average price of LME copper in the first three quarters was 9,561.07 USD/ton, up 4.71% from 9,131.16 USD/ton in the same period of 2024, while LME aluminum prices rose by 8.44% [4]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The energy metals sector appears to have reached a bottom, with signs of a potential rebound following price declines in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The average price of cobalt in the first three quarters was 226,241.76 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, driven by a significant rebound in September [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in December, the medium-term outlook for macroeconomic easing is strong, which will support non-ferrous metal prices [6]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [6].

11月21日，紫金矿业盘中下跌2.00%，截至09:35，报28.39元/股，成交5.46亿元，换手率0.09%，总市值 7545.36亿元。 分红方面，紫金矿业A股上市后累计派现592.77亿元。近三年，累计派现277.72亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，紫金矿业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股13.54亿股，相比上期减少2.35亿股。中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第四大流通股东，持 股6.91亿股，持股数量较上期不变。华夏上证50ETF（510050）位居第五大流通股东，持股3.15亿股， 相比上期减少834.77万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第六大流通股东，持股2.81亿股，相比 上期减少1211.12万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第八大流通股东，持股2.03亿股，相比上期 减少647.97万股。 紫金矿业今年以来股价涨94.19%，近5个交易日跌5.43%，近20日跌5.46%，近60日涨39.30%。 资料显示，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司位于福建省上杭县紫金大道1号,福建省厦门市思明区环岛东路 1811号中航紫金广场B塔 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints In Q3 2025, the supply of mainstream mines in Australia was stable, and the lithium shipments in South America increased quarter-on-quarter. In Q4, it is the peak production season for downstream industries, and the overseas lithium mine production capacity is ramping up. It is expected that the production and sales will maintain an upward trend [1][3][11]. Summary by Company Australia - **Overall in Australia**: In Q3 2025, the supply of mainstream mines was stable. The lithium concentrate production increased by about 1.8% year-on-year and 9.1% quarter-on-quarter, while the sales volume decreased slightly by 0.7% year-on-year and was nearly flat quarter-on-quarter. In Q4, with the commissioning of the CGP3 project at Greenbushes and the production capacity ramping up at Pilbara, it is expected that the production and sales will maintain an upward trend [3]. - **Greenbushes**: In Q3 2025, it produced 320,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 6% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year decrease. The sales volume was 301,000 tons, a 27% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year decrease. The average selling price was $730/ton (FOB), a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The cash production cost increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to A$388/ton, a 40% year-on-year increase. The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,775 tons of lithium hydroxide in Q3 2025, a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 85% year-on-year increase, and the sales volume was 2,921 tons, a 68% quarter-on-quarter increase. The CGP3 is expected to start commissioning at the end of 2025, increasing the annual production capacity by 520,000 tons to 2.14 million tons of lithium concentrate per year [4]. - **Pilbara**: In Q3 2025, it produced 225,000 tons of lithium concentrate (SC5.3), a 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 214,000 tons, a 1% quarter-on-quarter decrease and almost flat year-on-year. The average selling price was $742/ton (SC5.3, CIF China), a 24% quarter-on-quarter increase. The unit operating cost was $422/ton, a 9% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year decrease. The Ngungaju factory is under maintenance and can be quickly restarted when the market recovers. The feasibility study of the P2000 expansion is in progress, and the results are expected to be announced in FY2027. The midstream demonstration plant in Australia is under construction as planned and is expected to be completed in Q4. In Q3, the two production lines of the joint-venture lithium salt plant in South Korea produced 2,773 and 2,040 tons of lithium hydroxide respectively, and the sales volumes were 3,245 and 1,593 tons [5]. - **Mt Marion**: In Q3 2025, the total production of lithium concentrate was 146,000 tons, a 18% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year increase. The shipment volume of spodumene concentrate was 142,000 tons (SC4.6), a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 36% year-on-year decrease (110,000 tons in terms of SC6, a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 27% year-on-year decrease). The selling price in Q3 was $797/ton (SC6), a 31% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 2% year-on-year decrease. The cost in this quarter was A$796/ton (SC6, FOB), a 11% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 22% year-on-year decrease [6]. - **Wodgina**: In Q3 2025, it produced 176,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 6% quarter-on-quarter and 73% year-on-year increase. The sales volume was 194,000 tons, a 45% quarter-on-quarter and 111% year-on-year increase (176,000 tons in terms of SC6, a 44% quarter-on-quarter and 110% year-on-year increase). The unit selling price was $881/ton (SC6), a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on-year increase. The corresponding unit cost was A$733/ton, a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 40% year-on-year decrease [7]. - **Kathleen Valley**: In Q3 2025, the production of lithium concentrate was 87,172 tons, a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 77,474 tons, a 20% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The inventory increased by 89% quarter-on-quarter to 20,912 tons. The average selling price was $700/ton (SC6), a 5% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The corresponding unit operating cost was $715/ton (FOB, SC6), a 24% quarter-on-quarter increase. The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $886/ton, a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [8]. - **Mt Holland**: SQM updated the full-year sales guidance for Holland in 2025 to about 20,000 tons of LCE (50% equity). The lithium salt sales volume in Q3 was 10,000 tons, a significant increase from 1,300 tons in the previous quarter [9]. South America - **Overall in South America**: In Q3 2025, the shipments of major lithium resources increased by 14% quarter-on-quarter. It is expected that in Q4, as the salt lakes emerge from the production off-season, combined with production capacity ramping up and the downstream peak season, the lithium salt shipments in South America are expected to show an upward trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake project of Zijin Mining was officially put into production in September [11]. - **SQM**: In Q3 2025, the lithium salt sales volume of the Chilean division was 62,900 tons, a 22.85% year-on-year and 18.45% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average selling price was $8,281/ton, a 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The average cost was $6,050/ton, a 24% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease [12]. - **Arcadium Lithium Salt Lake Project**: The total quarterly production of the group's lithium resources was about 13,000 tons of LCE, a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase. The annual maintenance plan of the Fenix factory was adjusted from June to August, affecting the lithium carbonate production in this quarter, and the maintenance has been completed [13]. - **Caucharí-Olaroz**: In Q3 2025, the production was 8,300 tons, a 2% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The total production of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters of 2025 was about 24,000 tons, making the project likely to exceed the lower limit of the 2025 production guidance (30,000 - 35,000 tons). The total shipment volume of lithium carbonate in Q3 2025 was about 7,775 tons, a 10% quarter-on-quarter decrease, and the selling price was $7,522/ton. The second-phase expansion project with a production capacity of 45,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate is in progress, and the design of the 5,000-ton demonstration plant is being carried out in China [14]. - **Centenario-Ratones**: The production in Q3 was about 2,080 tons of LCE, a significant increase from 440 tons and 270 tons in the previous two quarters. The lithium sales volume in the quarter was 1,000 tons of LCE, compared with 480 tons in the previous quarter. In September, the capacity utilization rate of the factory reached 50% of the铭牌 capacity, in line with the production ramping-up expectations. Eramet expects the production of this salt lake in 2025 to be 4,000 - 7,000 tons [15]. - **Zijin 3Q**: On September 12, the commissioning ceremony of the 20,000-ton/year lithium carbonate project of Zijin Mining's Lithium Technology 3Q lithium salt lake was held. The pre - work such as the permit approval for the second-phase project is progressing in an orderly manner, with a planned lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of the two phases, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [16][17]. Others - **Grota do Cirilo**: In Q3 2025, affected by the change of equipment suppliers, the lithium concentrate production was 44,000 tons, a 27% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The mine operation is expected to resume at the end of November, and the production capacity will be fully increased to 300,000 tons/year in Q1 2026. The sales volume was 49,000 tons, a 15% year-on-year decrease and a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average selling price was $586/ton, a 61% year-on-year and 40% quarter-on-quarter increase. The cash operating cost (CIF China, including royalties) was $543/ton, a 6% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter increase. The second-phase expansion project is continuing, and the earthwork and terrace construction were completed this quarter. The second-phase project will add an annual capacity of 250,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the total annual capacity of the mine will reach 520,000 tons. The commissioning of the second-phase project is postponed to before the end of 2026 [17]. - **AMG**: In Q3 2025, it sold 15,409 tons of lithium concentrate, a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 32% year-on-year decrease. The unit selling price was $530/ton (CIF, China), a 15% quarter-on-quarter and 39% year-on-year decrease. The corresponding cost was $420/ton, a 14% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year decrease. One of the company's expansion project equipment has been malfunctioning since Q2, and the current operating capacity is 110,000 tons/year [18]. - **Africa**: The new projects are ramping up production smoothly. The first batch of ores from Ganfeng Lithium's Goulamina spodumene project in Mali arrived at domestic ports in early August. Hainan Mining's Bougouni lithium mine project in Mali obtained an export license from the Malian government and is expected to depart from Africa in Q4. The projects in Zimbabwe and Nigeria have benefited from the recovery of lithium prices and the increase in domestic imports. The main future supply increment in Africa is the northeastern project of Zijin Mining's Manono, with the first-phase project planning an annual production of 95,170 tons of crude lithium sulfate (about 50,000 tons of LCE), and it is planned to be put into production in the first half of 2026 [19].