工业金属：降息预期升温，部分金属供给扰动加剧。2025年第三季度，在对美国经济走弱、通胀走高的 担忧下，美联储降息预期进一步升温，同时特朗普加大对美联储干预，包括铜在内的工业金属价格得到 宏观宽松的支撑。与此同时，部分金属供给刚性持续增加，9月，全球第二大铜矿自由港旗下印尼 Grasberg铜矿发生矿难，预计将对2025年四季度及2026年全球铜矿供应产生影响，铜价进一步震荡向 上。前三季度，LME铜现货均价9561.07美元/吨，较2024年同期9131.16美元增长4.71%；前三季度LME 铝现货均价2566.06美元/吨，较2024年同期2366.41美元/吨增长8.44%。前三季度LME铅锌均价分别为 1961.14美元/吨、2769.79美元/吨，同比2024年上半年均价2094.7美元/吨、2687.7美元/吨分别下降 6.38%、上涨3.05%。 能源金属：板块或已筑底，反弹可期。2025年前三季度，国产碳酸锂（电池级，纯度99.5%）和氢氧化 锂（纯度56.5%）均价分别为71339.89元/吨、67844.81元/吨，同比2024年前三季度分别下降25.17%、 21.47%。从趋势来看， ...

11月21日，紫金矿业盘中下跌2.00%，截至09:35，报28.39元/股，成交5.46亿元，换手率0.09%，总市值 7545.36亿元。 分红方面，紫金矿业A股上市后累计派现592.77亿元。近三年，累计派现277.72亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，紫金矿业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股13.54亿股，相比上期减少2.35亿股。中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第四大流通股东，持 股6.91亿股，持股数量较上期不变。华夏上证50ETF（510050）位居第五大流通股东，持股3.15亿股， 相比上期减少834.77万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第六大流通股东，持股2.81亿股，相比 上期减少1211.12万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第八大流通股东，持股2.03亿股，相比上期 减少647.97万股。 紫金矿业今年以来股价涨94.19%，近5个交易日跌5.43%，近20日跌5.46%，近60日涨39.30%。 资料显示，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司位于福建省上杭县紫金大道1号,福建省厦门市思明区环岛东路 1811号中航紫金广场B塔 ...

专题报告 2025-11-21 碳酸锂：2025Q3 海外锂资源供给更新 报告要点： 澳大利亚 2025 年三季度澳大利亚主流矿山供应稳定，锂精矿产量同比增长约 1.8%，环比增长 9.1%。销 量同比略降 0.7%，环比近持平。四季度 Greenbushes 的 CGP3 项目启动调试， Pilbara 产能爬 坡，预计产销维持增势。 Greenbushes 2025 年三季度 Greenbushes 生产锂精矿 32.0 万吨，环比减少 6%，同比减少 21%。进料品位下 降、雨季干扰导致精矿产量下调。季度内锂矿销售量 30.1 万吨，环比减少 27%，同比减少 23%。产量下降和上季度库存提前消耗带来销量下滑。锂精矿平均销售价格为 730 美元/吨 （FOB），环比上涨 1%。现金生产成本环比增长 6%至 388 澳元/吨，同比上涨 40%。IGO 未修改 2026 财年采矿和加工业务生产预期，锂精矿生产指引为 150-165 万吨。Kwinana 氢氧化锂工厂 2025Q3 氢氧化锂生产量为 2775 吨，环比增长 31%，同比增长 85%。氢氧化锂销售量为 2921 吨，环比增长 68%。Green ...

每经AI快讯，南矿集团（SZ 001360，收盘价：16.53元）发布公告称，2025年11月20日下午 14:00~16:00，南矿集团接受紫金矿业投资（上海）有限公司等投资者调研，公司副董事长兼常务副总 裁龚友良等人参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访黄群慧：既要重视AI赋能千行百业，也要考量其对就业 的替代效应和带来的收入极化 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，南矿集团的营业收入构成为：制造业占比99.61%，其他业务占比0.39%。 ...

Core Insights - The company is focusing on transforming from an "equipment supplier" to an "operational service provider" in the precious metals mining sector, aiming for long-term high-value operational business [3] - The South American market is a key area for overseas expansion due to its rich mineral resources and compatibility with the company's technology [4] - The current order structure is dominated by black metals, with a diversified development in non-ferrous metals, particularly copper [5] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company aims to lock in long-term operational revenue by signing long-term maintenance contracts through equity participation in mining projects, with operational costs accounting for 80% of the total lifecycle cost of mining equipment [3] - The company is implementing an "investment + EPC + O" model, starting with the Brownhill gold mine project, to accumulate experience for replication in larger projects [3] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company plans to establish overseas warehouses in South America, focusing on high-value minerals such as gold, copper, and lithium, with copper being particularly prominent in the non-ferrous metal sector [4] - The overseas warehouse will typically cover an area of 10 to 20 acres and will include basic water, electricity, and logistics functions [4] Group 3: Order Structure - The order structure is characterized by a dominance of black metals, particularly iron ore, which has the highest order share due to economies of scale [5] - The company emphasizes the need to optimize the order structure to increase the proportion of high-value mineral types [5] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The company is establishing a differentiated advantage in overseas markets through "nanny-style" services and localized technical support, which are rare among domestic companies [6] - The implementation of a smart maintenance system using 5G and IoT technology allows for predictive maintenance, enhancing equipment utilization and reducing unplanned downtime [6] Group 5: Profitability - The company's gross margin is improving due to changes in business structure, with a higher revenue share from the more profitable metal mining business compared to sand and gravel [7] - The share of after-market services, including maintenance and parts, is continuously increasing, contributing to the overall improvement in gross margin [7]

星展集团研究部将 紫金矿业 集团A股目标价从30.00元上调至37.00元。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals industry, with the index rising by 1.51% and key stocks like Guocheng Mining and Yahua Group showing significant gains [1] - In October, the actual growth of the industrial added value of non-ferrous metals above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while the growth from January to October was 7.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous three quarters [1] - The demand in the energy storage market is robust, with leading domestic lithium battery companies placing large orders with upstream material suppliers, indicating a high growth trend in production for November [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which selects 50 securities with significant size and liquidity in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index accounted for 52.91% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium [2]

Group 1 - The metal lead concept increased by 2.03%, ranking second among concept sectors, with 28 stocks rising, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (up 7.00%), Xinyi Silver Tin (up 6.68%), and Tin Industry Co. (up 5.88%) [1][2] - The leading stocks in terms of decline included Wolong New Energy (down 3.13%), Yuehongyuan A (down 2.62%), and Jinhui Co. (down 1.91%) [1][2] Group 2 - The metal lead sector experienced a net outflow of 0.15 billion yuan from main funds, with 17 stocks seeing net inflows, and 8 stocks receiving over 30 million yuan in net inflows [2] - Zijin Mining led the net inflow with 1.03 billion yuan, followed by Hunan Silver (net inflow of 587.87 million yuan), Huayu Mining (net inflow of 533.39 million yuan), and China Metallurgical Group (net inflow of 497.01 million yuan) [2][3] Group 3 - In terms of net inflow ratios, Beijiete, China Metallurgical Group, and Hunan Silver had the highest ratios at 12.40%, 12.32%, and 8.80% respectively [3] - The top stocks by net inflow in the metal lead concept included Zijin Mining (up 3.35%), Hunan Silver (up 3.76%), and Huayu Mining (down 0.13%) [3]

资金流入比率方面，深中华A、金一文化、合百集团等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 34.08%、11.59%、9.98%。（数据宝） 黄金概念资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 600489 | 中金黄 金 | 8.76 | 2.24 | 16511.85 | 6.89 | | 000017 | 深中华 A | 9.94 | 13.37 | 14987.68 | 34.08 | | 600547 | 山东黄 金 | 5.98 | 1.27 | 10907.15 | 6.63 | | 601899 | 紫金矿 业 | 3.35 | 0.93 | 10301.75 | 1.84 | | 002716 | 湖南白 银 | 3.76 | 4.61 | 5878.69 | 8.80 | | 002340 | 格林美 | 0.36 | 4.07 | 5726.05 | 3.30 | | 300139 | ...