对话复旦大学经济学院院长张军：需求是破解制造业国家发展约束的关键，中国要形成支撑内循环的总需求

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. economy and the global order, highlighting the contradiction between seeking trade surplus and maintaining the dollar's dominance [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a record trade deficit of $1.21 trillion, with imports totaling $3.3 trillion and exports at $2.1 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance in trade [1] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit has historically supported the dollar's status, and reducing it could weaken the dollar, suggesting that Trump's approach may not be sustainable [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and rising bond yields, reflect the chaos and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies [2] - The article argues that the real issue for the U.S. is not trade imbalance but the failure to address the needs of the lower-income population, which has led to a lack of support compared to Europe [2] - In contrast to East Asian countries, which face structural issues of high savings and low consumption, China has the potential to address demand constraints due to its large population and economic scale [3] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should focus on creating a robust domestic demand to support its manufacturing sector, addressing issues such as "involution" in competition and protecting intellectual property rights [3] - It highlights the importance of increasing fiscal support for households and enhancing income through subsidies in education, healthcare, and pensions to stimulate consumption [3] - Additionally, China is diversifying its export markets and increasing overseas investments to promote exports, indicating its unique role in the global production system [4]