凯德（北京）投资基金管理有限公司：美联储如何在通胀与就业之间找到平衡？

Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned about the economic risks posed by global trade tensions, particularly due to increased market uncertainty from U.S. trade policies [1][3] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is currently growing at around 3%, with low unemployment rates, indicating a relatively healthy economic state [3] - However, recent tariff policies have increased market volatility and uncertainty, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations [3] Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in balancing inflation control with economic growth and employment support [3][4] - Schmid emphasized the need for the Fed to maintain its credibility in inflation control, warning that unchecked price increases could lead to a vicious cycle of inflation expectations, reminiscent of the "inflation spiral" of the 1970s [3] Tariff Impact - Despite the U.S. delaying additional tariffs on most trading partners, high tariff rates continue to create uncertainty for the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that ongoing tariff policies may push the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate up to 4%, exacerbating economic instability [3] Policy Decision Complexity - Schmid noted that while the theoretical impact of tariffs may be temporary, the Fed cannot rely solely on theoretical assumptions in the current economic environment [4] - The supply shocks caused by tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and economic growth, making future policy decisions by the Fed crucial [4]