时报访谈丨张建平：“需求限制+政策协同”应对贸易战

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China due to the U.S. government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," which are deemed excessive and unilateral, undermining international trade order [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Trade - The U.S. frequent changes in tariff measures have left many foreign trade enterprises in confusion, significantly suppressing foreign trade transactions and leading to a notable downward effect on global trade scale [2][17]. - The "tariff stick" wielded by the U.S. has become a major source of uncertainty in the global foreign trade market, overshadowing the growth prospects of global trade [2][17]. - The current market panic, exacerbated by U.S. tariff measures and protectionist actions, has led to a rise in the U.S. market panic index to levels seen in spring 2020, negatively impacting consumer confidence and market demand [2][17]. Group 2: Nature of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China are no longer reciprocal in nature, with rates exceeding 50% and in some cases over 100%, categorizing them as "extortionate tariffs" that severely hinder normal trade operations [4][6]. - The high tariff levels have rendered international trade nearly impossible for Chinese foreign trade enterprises, which operate in a highly competitive environment with limited profit margins [4][6]. Group 3: China's Response Strategy - China has adopted a "combination punch" strategy involving "increased tariffs + demand restrictions + policy coordination" to counter U.S. measures, achieving some effectiveness [7][16]. - Demand-side restrictions have been implemented, such as reducing the import quota for U.S. films and issuing travel warnings for studying and tourism in the U.S., targeting the service trade sector where the U.S. has a significant surplus [7][16]. - A policy matrix focusing on "list control + qualification review + market access restrictions" has been established to ensure precision and sustainability in China's countermeasures against the U.S. [7][16]. Group 4: Affected Industries - The sectors most impacted by the tariffs include machinery and electronics, textiles and apparel, furniture and toys, metals and products, transportation equipment, personal computers, and chemicals, with significant export values reported for each category [5][6]. - The anticipated impact on U.S.-China trade is expected to be substantial, particularly in the second and third quarters of 2025, affecting production and trade chains, and potentially leading to negative consequences for employment and economic growth [6].