关税乱流催生陡峭化豪赌 30年/2年美债利差九周连涨破纪录

Group 1 - The ongoing trade war under President Trump has led to a significant sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries, resulting in one of the best performances for a popular trading strategy in the bond market [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 2-year Treasuries has widened for nine consecutive weeks, reaching its highest level since 2022, benefiting asset management firms like DoubleLine [1] - Market speculation regarding tax cuts potentially exacerbating the U.S. deficit is contributing to the declining attractiveness of long-term Treasuries, while short-term Treasuries are outperforming due to economic concerns and expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The large-scale sell-off of long-term Treasuries is also attributed to hedge funds unwinding leveraged trades and banks selling bonds to meet liquidity demands [2] - There are rumors on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene if the bond market continues to deteriorate, with Boston Fed President Collins stating the Fed is "absolutely" prepared to stabilize the market if necessary [2] - The strategy of betting on a steepening yield curve may face challenges amid market volatility, as the yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries saw a significant pullback recently [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring fiscal negotiations, as any signs of larger deficit plans would negatively impact demand for Treasuries due to worsening supply-demand conditions [3] - Upcoming auctions, such as the $13 billion 20-year Treasury auction, will be a critical test of investor sentiment following a positive response to recent 10-year and 30-year Treasury issuances [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that the Fed will not rush to respond to the Trump administration's tariff policies, while New York Fed President Williams expects economic growth to slow and unemployment to rise due to these policies [3]