Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-04-14 06:17Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that Chinese airlines may benefit from slow aircraft deliveries leading to supply shortages and falling oil prices [1] - Concerns about demand growth are noted due to tariff increases causing macroeconomic weakness and faster-than-expected fleet introduction plans [1] - Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs believes that the demand for air travel in China is relatively resilient, primarily driven by leisure travel [1] Group 2 - The management of the three major airlines indicates that their current fleet plans are based on existing contracts, but actual new aircraft numbers may be lower than expected due to delivery delays and uncertainties in lease renewals [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts net demand growth for the years 2025 to 2027 at 4.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7% respectively, with ticket prices expected to improve continuously [1] - The airlines' profitability is sensitive to falling oil prices, and it is anticipated that airlines may share some fuel cost savings with customers to attract more passengers [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintains its net demand forecast while adjusting net profit estimates for the three major mainland airlines from a decrease of 5% to an increase of 2% due to lower ticket prices and revised oil price assumptions [2] - The target price for China National Aviation Holdings (601111) (00753) H-shares remains unchanged at HKD 6.7, while China Eastern Airlines (00670) H-shares target price is raised from HKD 3.4 to HKD 3.5, and China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) H-shares target price remains at HKD 4.4 [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on the three major airline stocks [2]