Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) Cai Jing Wang·2025-04-14 07:52Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's precious metals analyst Michael Hsueh maintains a strong long-term bullish outlook for gold, raising the price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,350 per ounce [1] Traditional Drivers Still Impactful - Since mid-February, the primary drivers for gold price increases have been traditional financial factors, including a decline in market risk appetite due to redefined U.S. tariffs, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a weak stock market [2] - The sensitivity of gold prices to traditional macro indicators remains significant, indicating potential short-term volatility due to changes in investment flows or central bank gold reserve adjustments [2] Central Bank Gold Accumulation Reshaping Pricing Logic - Central banks' continuous accumulation of gold has become a crucial support factor for gold prices, with global central bank gold purchases rising from 10% to 24% of total market demand since 2022, doubling the average purchase volume from 2011-2021 [3] - The main motivations for central banks to buy gold include long-term value preservation or inflation hedging (88%), performance during crises (82%), and portfolio diversification (76%) [3] - A survey indicates that 66% of central banks expect to increase gold's share in reserve assets, up from 46% in 2022, while 49% anticipate a decline in U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years [3] ETF Investors Joining Chinese Insurance Capital in Gold Trading - Private investment demand is showing signs of recovery, with global gold ETFs experiencing positive growth for the first time in two and a half years in February 2025 [4] - China's gold ETF purchases reached 1.47 million ounces in 2024, more than four times the volume in 2023, marking the highest annual increase since 2015 [4] - The potential allocation scale from participating institutions is estimated at $25 billion, equivalent to approximately 7% of global annual gold production, which could combine with central bank purchases to account for 30% of total gold market demand [4][5] Strong Adaptability of Asian Gold Import Demand to High Prices - Despite a decline in gold jewelry consumption to 38%, Asian non-monetary gold import demand is gradually adapting to rising prices, with long-term recovery potential [6] - Deutsche Bank predicts that even if gold prices exceed $3,000 per ounce, demand for jewelry, gold bars, and coins in the Asia-Pacific region will remain resilient [6] Structural Bull Market Foundation Solid - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue amid rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the dollar's reserve status [7] - The return of ETF funds and the active participation of Chinese insurance capital are likely to strengthen gold investment demand, further solidifying the upward price foundation for gold [7]