信号频现！大宗商品或开启十年超级周期

Group 1 - The rise in commodity prices has led analysts to speculate about the formation of a "supercycle," driven by changes in the global trade environment and supply-demand shocks [1] - Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategist at Societe Generale, believes the commodity supercycle has already begun, influenced by potential trade policies under a possible Trump administration [1] - Gijsels predicts that the next supercycle could be the largest on record, with supply-demand shocks potentially affecting commodity prices for the next decade [1] Group 2 - Gijsels emphasizes the importance of metals like gold, silver, and copper, forecasting that spot gold could rise to $4,000 per ounce and silver could increase by approximately 59% from recent levels [1] - Despite short-term pressures on copper and silver due to market concerns over tariffs, Gijsels maintains a positive outlook on these metals, viewing any price corrections as buying opportunities [1] - Not all commodities are expected to rise significantly; Gijsels specifically mentions cobalt and nickel as unlikely to see substantial price increases [1] Group 3 - Soft commodities such as coffee and cocoa are expected to rise due to climate change and supply vulnerabilities, with cocoa being particularly affected as 51% of global supply comes from Ivory Coast [2] - Pat Kennedy from AllSource Investments notes that many companies will struggle to absorb cost increases from tariffs, leading to a necessary rise in prices for key commodities like steel, aluminum, and agricultural products [2] - BMI analysts project price increases for coffee and corn by 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, with copper expected to rise by 7.9% by year-end and gold projected to increase by 29.7% by 2025 [2] Group 4 - André Castro Silva, an economics professor, expresses skepticism about the trade war benefiting commodities, suggesting that tariffs typically harm the imposing country and may not significantly alter international commodity prices [2] - Silva warns that a global recession could lead to a decline in all commodity prices, particularly for construction-related commodities like copper [2] - Market instability may increase demand for commodities, but Silva believes this demand will likely not be enough to counteract the downward price trends caused by a potential global recession [2]