日本成贸易谈判首选，美国会开出哪些条件？

Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated substantive trade negotiations with Japan, aiming to establish Japan as a model case for agreements with other countries following the recent tariff delay announcement [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan is the first country to engage in substantial trade negotiations with the U.S. after the tariff delay, indicating a strategic choice by the U.S. [1][2]. - The U.S. intends to use Japan as a template for future agreements with other nations, highlighting the importance of this negotiation [2]. Group 2: Potential U.S. Demands on Japan - The U.S. may push Japan to set explicit trade surplus targets, which could force Japan to reduce exports and increase imports, impacting its trade balance [3]. - Other potential demands include pushing for yen appreciation, which could harm Japanese export-oriented companies and hinder economic recovery [3]. - The U.S. might also request Japan to extend the maturity of its U.S. Treasury holdings, limiting Japan's foreign exchange reserve flexibility [3]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of not compromising too quickly for a deal, advocating for a careful approach to negotiations [4]. - The potential U.S. demands could significantly impact Japan's financial markets, with warnings of a rapid depreciation of the dollar and a substantial appreciation of the yen [4]. Group 4: Impact on Japanese Economy and Bond Market - A stronger yen could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese exports, adversely affecting manufacturing firms that rely heavily on exports [5]. - Increased fiscal spending, as suggested by the U.S., would require Japan to issue more government bonds, exacerbating supply pressures in the bond market [5]. - The Japanese long-term bond market is already showing signs of instability, with recent spikes in yields indicating market volatility [5]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Nomura warns of a global bond market imbalance and tightening liquidity risks, which could lead to broader credit contractions [7]. - The recent fluctuations in global stock markets and the widening of high-yield bond spreads indicate ongoing credit tightening [7].