Natural Gas Dips on Tariffs and Mild Weather: What Lies Ahead?

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, leading to bearish market conditions and significant losses in natural gas futures. Investors are advised to focus on specific stocks in the sector [1]. Inventory and Supply Data - Stockpiles in underground storage rose by 57 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended April 4, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 52 Bcf increase. This is significantly higher than the five-year average net addition of 17 Bcf and last year's growth of 16 Bcf for the same week [2]. - Total natural gas stocks reached 1,830 Bcf, which is 450 Bcf (19.7%) below the 2024 level and 40 Bcf (2.1%) lower than the five-year average. The average total supply of natural gas was 112.4 Bcf per day, up 2.3 Bcf from the previous week, primarily due to increased shipments from Canada [3]. Price Movements - Natural gas prices fell by 8.1% to settle at $3.527 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a larger-than-expected inventory build. This marks the fourth consecutive week of inventory increases, which has helped narrow the five-year average storage deficit [4]. Market Dynamics - Concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute are contributing to market volatility and uncertainty regarding LNG exports, despite solid feedgas flows to export terminals. The market remains cautious as it navigates low-demand seasonal shifts [5]. Company Focus - Antero Resources (AR): A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, having produced 316 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in the most recent quarter, with over 60% being natural gas. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a remarkable 1,604.8% year-over-year growth [7][8]. - Coterra Energy (CTRA): An independent upstream operator with a significant presence in the Marcellus Shale, where approximately 65% of its production is natural gas. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 32.2% over the next three to five years, outperforming the industry average of 19.3% [9][11]. - Gulfport Energy (GPOR): Focused on natural gas exploration and production, Gulfport has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet and a strategy oriented towards free cash flow. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 76.4% year-over-year growth [12][13].