ABBV vs. MRK: Which Drug Giant is a Better Buy Now?

Company Overview - Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV) are leading pharmaceutical companies with strong portfolios in oncology and immunology, with Merck also involved in vaccines, diabetes, virology, and animal health, while AbbVie has a presence in aesthetics, neuroscience, and eye care [1][2] - Oncology accounts for around 50% of Merck's total revenues, with Keytruda, a PD-L1 inhibitor, alone accounting for approximately 50% of its pharmaceutical sales [1][2] AbbVie Analysis - AbbVie's largest segment is immunology, contributing around 50% of its total revenues, with key drugs including Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq [2][3] - The company has successfully managed the loss of exclusivity for Humira by launching new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing well and expected to support growth [3][4] - AbbVie has a robust pipeline with several early/mid-stage candidates and anticipates multiple regulatory submissions and approvals in the next 12 months [4] - The company has been active in acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline, particularly in immunology, while also exploring early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience [4] AbbVie Challenges - AbbVie faces near-term challenges, including biosimilar erosion of Humira, competitive pressure on Imbruvica, and slow market growth for Juvederm fillers in the U.S. and China [5] AbbVie Financials - As of December 31, 2024, AbbVie had $60.3 billion in long-term debt and$6.8 billion in short-term obligations, with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $5.6 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.95, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.41 [6] Merck Analysis - Merck has over six blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda being the primary revenue driver, particularly in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer [7] - The company has made significant regulatory and clinical progress in 2024, particularly in oncology and vaccines, and has executed strategic acquisitions [8] Merck Challenges - Merck's sales of Gardasil declined in 2024 due to weak performance in China, and the company is experiencing weakness in its diabetes franchise and generic erosion of some drugs [9] - Concerns are rising about Merck's ability to grow its non-oncology business ahead of Keytruda's loss of exclusivity in 2028 [10] Merck Financials - As of the end of 2024, Merck had cash and cash equivalents of$13.7 billion against long-term debt of $34.5 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.42, slightly above the industry average [10] Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 5.7% and 21.4%, respectively [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 1.3% and 17.1%, respectively [14] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, AbbVie's stock has declined by 0.6%, while Merck's stock has dropped by 19.7%, compared to the industry's decrease of 6.0% [17] Valuation Comparison - Both companies are priced lower than the industry average, with AbbVie trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.71, higher than Merck's 8.60 [19] - AbbVie's dividend yield is 3.75%, lower than Merck's 4.09% [20] Return on Equity - AbbVie's return on equity stands at 296.3%, significantly higher than Merck's 44.4% [23] Investment Outlook - AbbVie is positioned for continued strong growth, having navigated the challenges of Humira's patent cliff effectively, while Merck faces uncertainties related to Keytruda's upcoming loss of exclusivity [25][26] - AbbVie expects robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, while Merck's future growth is uncertain due to its reliance on Keytruda [26]