Goldman Sachs Cuts Outlook For These Hotel And Lodging Stocks As Potential Recession Looms

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for U.S. Lodging C-Corps and Timeshares has been downgraded due to weaker consumer demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and negative impacts from U.S. airlines, leading to a reduction in 2025 RevPAR forecasts by approximately 125 basis points [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A 45% probability of a U.S. recession is assumed, although not fully factored in, with a focus on asset-light companies that have global exposure and less reliance on U.S. resorts [2] - The preference is for stocks with more global diversity, lower U.S. resort exposure, asset-light business models, and stronger prospects for non-RevPAR and ancillary revenues in a choppier macro environment [3] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that lodging revenue growth is cyclical, with significant downturns during previous recessions, where business demand impacts leisure travel first, and premium chains experience larger RevPAR declines than economy chains [4] - Hotel C-Corps have transitioned to asset-light, fee-based business models over the past decade, which have shown resilience during downturns, as franchise revenues tend to perform better than owned/leased or timeshare revenues [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH) was upgraded from Sell to Buy, with a price forecast lowered from $141 to$138, due to its defensive position driven by franchise revenue structure and strong balance sheet [6] - CHH is less affected by current macroeconomic challenges compared to other U.S. lodging companies, with improving trends in consumer purchase intent and performance among lower-income segments [7] - Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell, with a price forecast lowered from $150 to$110, due to higher macro sensitivity and significant exposure to China [8] - Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) and Marriott International Inc (MAR) were downgraded from Buy to Neutral, with price forecasts lowered from $296 to$235 and from $313 to$245, respectively, due to macro volatility and consumer pressures impacting macro-sensitive segments [9][10] - Both HLT and MAR have strong business models but face high valuations compared to historical cycles, with consensus estimates for IMF and non-RevPAR fees considered too optimistic [11]