中金：维持中国神华跑赢行业评级 有望凭借更好的销售结构降低盈利波动

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for China Shenhua, expecting the company to reduce profit volatility through improved sales structure [1] Cost Management - In 2024, China Shenhua's self-produced coal cost is projected to be 179 RMB/ton, remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The company aims to keep the cost increase for 2025 within 6%, down from the previous guidance of 10% [1] - The actual cost guidance for 2024 is also set at a year-on-year increase of 10%, but it is expected to remain flat [1] Financial Reserves - As of the end of 2024, the company has a special reserve of 23.319 billion RMB, indicating a strong financial buffer [1] Sales Structure - The company has a high long-term contract ratio of approximately 80% and a high internal supply ratio, which also stands around 80% when considering the group [1] - In Q1 2025, the long-term contract fulfillment rate is close to 100%, which is expected to help reduce profit volatility [1] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast and "outperform" rating remain unchanged, with a target price of 36 HKD for H-shares [1]