智通财经APP获悉，11月14日,阿里巴巴-W（09988）、腾讯控股（00700）、中芯国际（00981）南向资 金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入22.47 亿、21.60 亿、7.98 亿 中国神华（01088）、中国人寿（02628）、快手-W（01024）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前三，分别 净流出-2.59 亿、-2.48 亿、-2.13 亿 在净流入比方面，工银南方中国（03167）、南方港美科技（03442）、南方港股通（03432）以 100.00%、83.79%、78.17%位列市场前三。 在净流出比方面，昆仑能源（00135）、同仁堂国药（03613）、现代牧业（01117） 以-56.35%、-48.89%、-48.07%位列市场前三。 前10大资金净流入榜 | 股票名称 | 净流入(元)↓ | 净流入比 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 22.47 亿 | 14.18% | 154.900（-4.38%） | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 21.60 亿 | 16.74% | 641.000（-2.29%） | ...

来源：尧望后势 25Q3，险资继续加大权益资产配置规模，权益资产配置比例大幅上升接近历史新高。25Q3险资资产配 置中，银行存款、债券、股票、基金、长期股权投资和其他资产投资比例分别为7.9%、50.3%、 10.0%、5.5%、7.9%和18.4%，其中银行存款和债券的投资比例较二季度分别降低0.7pct/0.8pct，而股票 和基金的投资比例大幅升至15.5%，已十分接近2015年上半年16.1%的历史最高水平。 | 加仓前10 | 证券名称 申万一级 | | 25Q3增持市值 | 股息率 | 减仓前10 | 证券名称 申万一级 | 25Q3减持市值 | 股息率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (亿元) | (%) | | | (1270) | (%) | | 601288.SH 农业银行 | | 银行 | 329.1 | 3.63 | 002281.SZ 光迅科技 | 通信 | -7.0 | 0.39 | | 601658.SH 邮储银行 | | 银行 | 125.9 | 3.60 | 002085.SZ ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，兖矿能源(01171.HK)跌3.57%，报11.06港元；兖煤澳洲 (03668.HK)跌3.42%，报27.64港元；中国神华(01088.HK)跌2.73%，报40.6港元；中煤能源(01898.HK)跌 2.47%，报11.46港元。 ...

煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，兖矿能源(01171)跌3.57%，报11.06港元；兖煤澳洲(03668)跌3.42%，报 27.64港元；中国神华(01088)跌2.73%，报40.6港元；中煤能源(01898)跌2.47%，报11.46港元。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，我们认为短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。 10月份，规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的 核心原因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的 大趋势不会改变。 消息面上，2025年前三季度煤价仍同比下跌，煤企业绩同比仍回落，但在"反内卷"影响之下，第三季度 煤炭价格已环比明显修复，煤企三季度业绩环比亦明显改善。 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，我们认为短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。 10月份，规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的 核心原因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的 大趋势不会改变。 煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，兖矿能源（600188）(01171)跌3.57%，报11.06港元；兖煤澳洲(03668)跌 3.42%，报27.64港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)跌2.73%，报40.6港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898) 跌2.47%，报11.46港元。 消息面上，2025年前三季度煤价仍同比下跌，煤企业绩同比仍回落，但在"反内卷"影响之下，第三季度 煤炭价格已环比明显修复，煤企三季度业绩环比亦明显改善。 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].

Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction and are shifting focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [10][27]. - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, and the cost of new wells is close to current oil prices, limiting profit margins. This suggests that the growth rate of US oil production is likely to slow down, with evidence of this trend emerging in the first half of 2025 [10][27]. - OPEC+ has implemented production cuts that exceed expectations, indicating that there will be limited supply growth in the coming year [10][27]. Oil Industry - OPEC has shifted its outlook from a supply shortage to an anticipated oversupply in the global oil market, resulting in a significant drop in oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell to $63.14 per barrel, down 2.56% week-on-week, while WTI prices decreased to $59.69 per barrel, down 0.65% [11][32]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from the mid-high price fluctuations of oil, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [11]. Coal Industry - The market for thermal coal remains stable, with prices experiencing fluctuations. The average market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 817.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.67% from the previous week. However, downstream demand remains cautious, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [12][13]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic coal companies like China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, which are expected to benefit from the stable pricing environment and their resource advantages [13]. Natural Gas Industry - There is a growing demand for LNG imports in Asia, driven by energy transition efforts in major economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea. This has led to active negotiations for long-term contracts with major LNG exporting countries [15][16]. - The average price of natural gas in the US increased to $4.5 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 4.6% rise from the previous week [15][30]. Oilfield Services Industry - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies reached 583.3 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% since 2018 [17][18]. - The report indicates that despite falling oil prices, capital expenditures remain high, which is likely to sustain the industry's overall health [17].

华源证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，2025年Q3，煤炭板块在"查超产"政策支撑下价格企稳回升， 动力煤企业受益于长协履约改善与煤电联营，盈利环比提升；炼焦煤企业因长协定价滞后，盈利表现相 对承压。Q4冬季预计采暖需求增长与供给端政策持续偏紧影响下有望支撑煤价保持强势，行业整体业 绩有望延续改善趋势。 动力煤受益量稳价升本降及煤电一体化，Q4炼焦煤企业端价格有望显著回升 仅从自产煤单位盈利情况看，煤价传导滞后是普遍性影响，阶段性成本上升是个别影响，这两大因素单 独或共同影响了煤企2025Q3的自产煤单位毛利，导致多数煤企的自产煤业务单位毛利环比下降。同 时，动力煤企依靠稳定的产量和成本压降，并通过煤电联营贡献电力盈利，使得整体的盈利情况依然环 比上升。炼焦煤企的季度长协机制，使其Q2、Q3均价大体持平，并未完全体现出炼焦煤期货端价格大 幅回升的积极作用，但随着现货中枢更长期保持相对高位，炼焦煤季度长协有望在四季度迎来进一步上 涨。预计随着煤价传导落地，煤企2025Q4业绩将延续改善趋势。 供紧需增，冬季煤价有望保持强势 板块Q3收入环比积极，动力煤企归母净利润环比增速优于炼焦煤企 ...

投资建议：周期与红利双逻辑，四主线布局 煤炭股双逻辑之一：周期弹性。当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供 了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供需基本 面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火 电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程度更高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现 出更大的价格弹性。煤炭股双逻辑之二：稳健红利。多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿，中 报仍有6家上市煤企发布中期分红方案（中国神华/山西焦煤/陕西煤业/上海能源/兖矿能源/中 煤能源）。资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上 的脉冲，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧， 已到布局时点。四主线精选煤炭个股将受益：主线一，周期逻辑：动力煤的【晋控煤业、兖 矿能源】，冶金煤的【平煤股份、淮北矿业、潞安环能】；主线二，红利逻辑：【中国神 华、中煤能源（分红潜力）、陕西煤业】；主线三，多元化铝弹性：【神火股份、电投能 源】；主线四，成长逻辑：【新集能源、广汇能源】。 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小涨，截 ...

中国神华 20251114 摘要 中国神华前三季度净利润 144 亿元，同比下降 6.2%，但第三季度煤炭 业务产销量实现 2025 年以来首次同比增长，显示复苏迹象。 商品煤前三季度产量 12.5 亿吨，同比下降 0.4%；销量 3.17 亿吨，同 比下降 8.14%。年度长协和月度长协价格分别下降 8.1%和 22.4%，但 单位成本下降 7.5%，缓解了价格下跌的影响。 发电业务方面，总发电量和售电量虽有下降，但燃煤价格下降使得度电 毛利率提升 3 个百分点，利润同比增长 20%至 101 亿元。 运输业务周转量微降 0.3%，但单位运输价格上涨 1.21%，利润总额同 比上升 1.5%。港口业务毛利率因成本降低而增长，航运业务则因货运 量减少导致毛利率下滑。 化工产品销售量同比增长 13.97%，营收同比增长 6.1%，但毛利率仅 为 7.1%，化工板块盈利能力有待提升。 通过并购国家能源集团及西部能源相关资产，中国神华实现了产能扩张， 预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润有望稳步增长，并维持稳定分红。 维持对中国神华的强烈推荐评级，建议投资者关注其 A 股（601,088） 与 H 股（1,088 ...