证 券 研 究 报 告 资源民族主义觉醒，高估的煤炭供给 2026年煤炭行业投资策略 证券分析师：严天鹏 A0230524090004 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 闫海 A0230519010004 研究支持： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 联系人： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 2025.11.17 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 逆全球化浪潮推动资源民族主义持续觉醒，煤炭作为关键战略能源，其保障国家能源安全的核 心价值被重新凸显。印尼、蒙古、美国等主要煤炭储量大国纷纷强化对煤炭资源的管控，将其 纳入国家战略布局，通过规范开采、优化利用、下游延链等方式来巩固能源自主底气。这些国 家既依托煤炭资源支撑国内工业与电力需求，同时期冀本国煤炭资源成为地缘博弈与经济发展 的双重支撑。 ◼ 供给端：展望2026年，煤炭行业正面临深层次的格局重塑，在能源安全战略地位凸显的背景下， 安监、环保常态化将促使供给秩序趋于理性，从源头上推动煤炭行业迈向高质量发展，产能释 放预计稳中有紧。 ◼ 需求端：考虑到全社会用电量的刚性增长，及新能源出力存在波动性，煤电在调峰 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20251110-20251116） OPEC 预期供给过剩，本周油价下跌 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 493 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 51,121.17 | 4.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 45,298.84 | 4.89 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.6% | 18.4% | 53.8% | | 相对表现 | 1.3% | 8.4% | 21.7% | -10% 6% 23% 39% 24 ...

华源证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，2025年Q3，煤炭板块在"查超产"政策支撑下价格企稳回升， 动力煤企业受益于长协履约改善与煤电联营，盈利环比提升；炼焦煤企业因长协定价滞后，盈利表现相 对承压。Q4冬季预计采暖需求增长与供给端政策持续偏紧影响下有望支撑煤价保持强势，行业整体业 绩有望延续改善趋势。 动力煤受益量稳价升本降及煤电一体化，Q4炼焦煤企业端价格有望显著回升 仅从自产煤单位盈利情况看，煤价传导滞后是普遍性影响，阶段性成本上升是个别影响，这两大因素单 独或共同影响了煤企2025Q3的自产煤单位毛利，导致多数煤企的自产煤业务单位毛利环比下降。同 时，动力煤企依靠稳定的产量和成本压降，并通过煤电联营贡献电力盈利，使得整体的盈利情况依然环 比上升。炼焦煤企的季度长协机制，使其Q2、Q3均价大体持平，并未完全体现出炼焦煤期货端价格大 幅回升的积极作用，但随着现货中枢更长期保持相对高位，炼焦煤季度长协有望在四季度迎来进一步上 涨。预计随着煤价传导落地，煤企2025Q4业绩将延续改善趋势。 供紧需增，冬季煤价有望保持强势 板块Q3收入环比积极，动力煤企归母净利润环比增速优于炼焦煤企 ...

投资建议：周期与红利双逻辑，四主线布局 煤炭股双逻辑之一：周期弹性。当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供 了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供需基本 面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火 电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程度更高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现 出更大的价格弹性。煤炭股双逻辑之二：稳健红利。多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿，中 报仍有6家上市煤企发布中期分红方案（中国神华/山西焦煤/陕西煤业/上海能源/兖矿能源/中 煤能源）。资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上 的脉冲，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧， 已到布局时点。四主线精选煤炭个股将受益：主线一，周期逻辑：动力煤的【晋控煤业、兖 矿能源】，冶金煤的【平煤股份、淮北矿业、潞安环能】；主线二，红利逻辑：【中国神 华、中煤能源（分红潜力）、陕西煤业】；主线三，多元化铝弹性：【神火股份、电投能 源】；主线四，成长逻辑：【新集能源、广汇能源】。 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小涨，截 ...

中国神华 20251114 摘要 中国神华前三季度净利润 144 亿元，同比下降 6.2%，但第三季度煤炭 业务产销量实现 2025 年以来首次同比增长，显示复苏迹象。 商品煤前三季度产量 12.5 亿吨，同比下降 0.4%；销量 3.17 亿吨，同 比下降 8.14%。年度长协和月度长协价格分别下降 8.1%和 22.4%，但 单位成本下降 7.5%，缓解了价格下跌的影响。 发电业务方面，总发电量和售电量虽有下降，但燃煤价格下降使得度电 毛利率提升 3 个百分点，利润同比增长 20%至 101 亿元。 运输业务周转量微降 0.3%，但单位运输价格上涨 1.21%，利润总额同 比上升 1.5%。港口业务毛利率因成本降低而增长，航运业务则因货运 量减少导致毛利率下滑。 化工产品销售量同比增长 13.97%，营收同比增长 6.1%，但毛利率仅 为 7.1%，化工板块盈利能力有待提升。 通过并购国家能源集团及西部能源相关资产，中国神华实现了产能扩张， 预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润有望稳步增长，并维持稳定分红。 维持对中国神华的强烈推荐评级，建议投资者关注其 A 股（601,088） 与 H 股（1,088 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal consumption is approaching a turning point, with a clear direction and potential for growth. The recent cold wave is expected to increase coal demand as power plants will need to procure more coal, leading to a potential rise in coal prices [6][29] - The report highlights that the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises increased by 2.7% week-on-week but decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, with coal prices likely to rise steadily [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed slightly, with a decline of 0.78% compared to a 1.08% drop in the CSI 300 index, outperforming it by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The average daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 752 million tons, a 2% increase week-on-week but a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 698 RMB/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week, while the import price index for thermal coal was 944 RMB/ton, up 6.19% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with the main coking coal price at 1830 RMB/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [4] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.3 million tons, a 2.1% increase week-on-week but a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory in society was 17.68 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 374,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 873,000 tons [3][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The report indicates that the upward trend in thermal coal prices is expected to continue due to supply constraints from the November central safety production assessments and improving demand as winter approaches, with prices likely to exceed expectations [5][6] - For coking coal, despite short-term demand pressure from the off-season, the current low inventory and tight supply suggest significant price recovery potential if pro-cyclical policies are reintroduced globally [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the bottom reversal opportunities in the coal sector, supported by low price-to-book ratios and low holdings [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of November 14, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 834 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 17 RMB/ton. The report anticipates continued price increases due to tight supply and low port inventories, alongside seasonal demand improvements [5][13] - The report notes that the inventory at the northern three ports is 12.58 million tons, down 12% year-on-year, while power plant inventories are 130 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year, with usable days at 25.9 days, up 1.2 days year-on-year [6][14] Coking Coal - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1860 RMB/ton as of November 14. The report highlights that while steel mill demand is currently weak, the supply situation for coking coal is tight, indicating potential for price elasticity [5][6] - The report also mentions that the average daily pig iron production at sample steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [15] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the current price-to-book ratios for coking coal and major thermal coal companies are at the lower third percentile since 2016, indicating undervaluation compared to other cyclical resource sectors [6] - The report recommends a mixed strategy for investment, highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy as stable leaders, while also suggesting more aggressive plays in companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinneng Holding Group [6][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][12] - The coal price is expected to rise due to factors such as cold weather and low inventory levels at ports, which may drive demand quickly [4][12] - The coal sector remains undervalued, with a strong potential for price recovery and high dividend yields, making it a favorable investment opportunity [4][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1830 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.2%, up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while for coking coal it is 86.28%, up 2.5 percentage points [4][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 12.3 thousand tons/day (+3.8%), while consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 8.0 thousand tons/day (-4.26%) [4][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 464 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 2.517 million tons [4][12] Company Performance - The coal sector's performance is highlighted by companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong earnings [13][14]

证券研究报告/投资策略 供需两端边际改善，煤炭或进入景气周期 煤炭行业研究 投资要点 ➢ 煤炭供给端收缩显著 国家能源局发布《国家能源局综合司关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤 炭供应平稳有序的通知》，对煤炭行业进行整顿，对超能力生产的煤矿一律责 令停产整改。政策约束行业供给，减少恶性竞争，国内煤炭产量增速收窄，明 确动力煤"绿色区间"为570-770元/吨。动力煤现货价格持续刷新年内高 点，主要港口报价全面突破800元/吨关键关口。 欧盟重启煤电，印度"煤荒"等因素推高国际煤价，进口煤炭价格上升减弱 煤炭进口意愿，叠加关税政策扰动的影响，中国对美国煤炭加征进口关税，降 低了进口煤炭的成本优势，此外，国内电力企业优先采购国产长协煤，挤压了 对进口煤炭的需求。2025年中国煤炭进口量同比明显减少，2025年1-9月， 全国煤炭进口总量34,589万吨，同比下降11.1%，进口煤炭明显减量，虽四 季度为传统采暖旺季，冬储需求或推动进口煤炭数量增加，但全年来看煤炭 进口或仍处低位。 ➢ 用煤需求高增，需求侧扩容 作为煤炭消费的主力军，电力行业需求持续释放。2025年火电发电量预计增 加2,900亿千瓦时，同比增长4 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯 11月14日，中国神华（601088）公告，2025年10月商品煤产量为2640万吨，同比下 降7.4%；累计产量为2.77亿吨，同比下降1.1%。煤炭销售量为3600万吨，同比下降5.8%；累计销售量为 3.52亿吨，同比下降8.2%。 ...