继续看好，坚定逢低布局 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 继续看好，坚定逢低布局 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 ◆ 动力煤价格方面：本周秦港价格周环比持平，产地大同价格周环比上涨。 港口动力煤：截至 11 月 22 日，秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价 827 元/吨，周环比持平。产地动力煤：截至 11 月 21 日，陕西榆林动力 ...

事项： 公司发布2025 年三季报，报告期内公司实现营收2131.51 亿元，同比-16.57%，归母净利润390.52 亿 元，同比-9.98%，扣非归母净利润387.04 亿元，同比-15.90%；Q3 实现营收750.42 亿元，同比/环比分 别-13.1%/+9.51%，归母净利润144.11 亿元，同比/环比分别-6.24%/+13.54%，扣非归母净利润143.92 亿 元，同比/环比分别-13.05%/+14.16%。 风险提示：国内需求不及预期，进口煤大幅增长，长协政策变化等 长协比例大幅增长，主业产能持续提升。2025 年前三季度公司年度长协/月度长协销售占比分别为 53.2%/39.3%，合计约92.5%，同比上期重述值提升7pct。 主业新增产能方面：电力端，控股子公司国能神华九江发电有限责任公司二期扩建工程3 号机组（装机 容量共计1000MW）于2025 年8 月正式投入商业运营；公司在福建、广东省多个光伏发电项目投运，光 伏发电装机容量增加264兆瓦。煤炭端，新街一井、新街二井均已获得国家发展改革委核准批复及项目 开工备案文件，处于建设阶段；公司在2025 年2 月完成对国家能源集 ...

业绩环比稳健增长，一体化运营韧性突出 目标价：49.86 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报，报告期内公司实现营收 2131.51 亿元，同比-16.57%， 归母净利润 390.52 亿元，同比-9.98%，扣非归母净利润 387.04 亿元，同比- 15.90%；Q3 实现营收 750.42 亿元，同比/环比分别-13.1%/+9.51%，归母净利 润 144.11 亿元，同比/环比分别-6.24%/+13.54%，扣非归母净利润 143.92 亿元， 同比/环比分别-13.05%/+14.16%。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：国内需求不及预期，进口煤大幅增长，长协政策变化等 [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国神华（601088）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 338,375 | 303,346 | 314,091 | 319,869 | | 同比增速(%) | -1.4% | - ...

流动性方面，截止11月21日，港股通红利低波ETF（159117）近20个交易日累计成交金额2.18亿元，日 均成交金额1089.94万元。 港股通红利低波ETF（159117）现任基金经理为闫冬、余展昌。闫冬自2025年9月30日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益6.76%；余展昌自2025年9月30日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 6.76%。 最新定期报告显示，港股通红利低波ETF（159117）重仓股包括恒隆地产、江西铜业股份、中国神华、 远东宏信、中国海洋石油、信和置业、中国石油股份、恒安国际、恒基地产、中银香港，持仓占比如 下。 股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）00101恒隆地产1.08%49.60万406.64万00358 江西铜业股份1.08%12.20万405.65万01088中国神华1.05%11.00万397.28万03360远东宏信0.99%58.80万 372.02万00883中国海洋石油0.96%21.00万361.59万00083信和置业0.94%38.40万354.43万00857中国石油 股份0.87%49.60万329.21万01044恒安国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dividend assets are experiencing a correction, but the trend of capital inflow continues, driven by the demand for high-dividend assets from insurance companies under new accounting standards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 21, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (520900) fell by 1.74% with a trading volume of 33.55 million yuan [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the net inflow into the ETF was 104 million yuan, and over the past 20 days, it was 150 million yuan, with the latest fund size reaching 1.881 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Trends - From October 13 to November 14, the ETF has seen continuous growth in shares for five consecutive weeks, with the latest share count at 1.728 billion [1]. - The demand for high-dividend stocks is expected to increase significantly as insurance companies switch to new accounting standards by 2026, with an estimated annual allocation of 250 to 500 billion yuan for high-dividend assets by five A-share listed insurance companies by 2027 [1]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The Hong Kong dividend assets exhibit a "defensive" characteristic in volatile markets, with a focus on high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2]. - The ETF tracks the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, which emphasizes high-dividend state-owned enterprises, with the top three sectors being oil and petrochemicals (29.7%), telecommunications (21.2%), and transportation (13.5%) [2]. Group 4: Fund Details - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (520900) was established on June 26, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [3]. - The current fund managers are Huo Huaming and Lv Xin, with returns of 12.68% and 26.76% respectively during their management periods [3]. Group 5: Top Holdings - The top holdings of the ETF include China Petroleum (10.86%), China Mobile (10.32%), and China Shenhua (9.70%), with significant market values for each [4]. - Investors focused on sustainable dividends and quality earnings can consider the ETF for a balanced exposure to high-dividend stocks in the Hong Kong market [4].

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (72.33%), Power Assets Holdings (69.46%), and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (69.45%) [1][2] - Alibaba (W) saw the largest increase in holding amount over the last five trading days, with an increase of 88.38 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group (22.55 billion) and Xpeng Motors (15.37 billion) [1][2] - The largest decreases in holding amounts were observed in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (-25.69 billion), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (-16.22 billion), and China Shenhua Energy (-9.29 billion) [1][3] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) holds 100.39 million shares, representing 72.33% of its total [2] - Power Assets Holdings (01635) holds 3.71 million shares, representing 69.46% [2] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (01330) holds 2.81 million shares, representing 69.45% [2] - Other notable companies include Huitian International Investment (68.37%) and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (68.31%) [2] Recent Increases in Holdings - Alibaba (W) increased by 88.38 billion, with a share increase of 57.1 million [2] - Xiaomi Group (W) increased by 22.55 billion, with a share increase of 59.8 million [2] - Xpeng Motors (W) increased by 15.37 billion, with a share increase of 18.8 million [2] - Other companies with notable increases include China Construction Bank (11.86 billion) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (11.37 billion) [2] Recent Decreases in Holdings - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong decreased by 25.69 billion, with a share decrease of 98.8 million [3] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF decreased by 16.22 billion, with a share decrease of 17.3 million [3] - China Shenhua Energy decreased by 9.29 billion, with a share decrease of 22.9 million [3] - Other companies with significant decreases include Agricultural Bank of China (-6.39 billion) and WuXi Biologics (-6.06 billion) [3]

Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows of southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 3.296 billion, XPeng Motors-W (09868) with 1.147 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 0.853 billion [1][2] - The top three companies with net outflows of southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with -0.559 billion, China Life (02628) with -0.427 billion, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) with -0.368 billion [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, ICBC South China (03167) leads with 100.00%, followed by Xiaocai Garden (00999) with 74.08%, and Qingdao Bank (03866) with 67.42% [1][3] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios include Q Tech (01478) at -58.31%, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) at -53.04%, and Nexperia (01316) at -43.99% [1][4] Net Inflow Rankings - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 3.296 billion, representing a 20.59% increase in its closing price to 154.600 [2] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) saw a net inflow of 1.147 billion, with a 25.58% increase in its closing price to 85.950 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced a net inflow of 0.853 billion, with a 9.75% increase in its closing price to 40.780 [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a net outflow of -0.559 billion, with a -4.24% change in its closing price to 26.060 [2] - China Life (02628) experienced a net outflow of -0.427 billion, with a -23.81% change in its closing price to 26.140 [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) had a net outflow of -0.368 billion, with a -14.88% change in its closing price to 21.800 [2]

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 11月20日，华夏中证港股通央企红利ETF（513910）收盘跌0.24%，成交额3.06亿元。 港股央企红利ETF（513910）成立于2024年2月7日，基金全称为华夏中证港股通央企红利交易型开放式 指数证券投资基金，基金简称为华夏中证港股通央企红利ETF。该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托管费率 每年0.10%。港股央企红利ETF（513910）业绩比较基准为经估值汇率调整后的中证港股通央企红利指 数收益率。 规模方面，截止11月19日，港股央企红利ETF（513910）最新份额为27.75亿份，最新规模为46.17亿 元。回顾2024年12月31日，港股央企红利ETF（513910）份额为13.23亿份，规模为17.52亿元。即该基 金今年以来份额增加109.73%，规模增加163.55%。 流动性方面，截止11月20日，港股央企红利ETF（513910）近20个交易日累计成交金额42.33亿元，日均 成交金额2.12亿元；今年以来，214个交易日，累计成交金额299.99亿元，日均成交金额1.40亿元。 港股央企红利ETF（513910）现任基金经理为鲁亚运。鲁亚运自2024年 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 11月20日，港红利（520890）收盘涨0.00%，成交额5230.42万元。 港股通红利低波ETF（520890）成立于2024年9月4日，基金全称为华泰柏瑞恒生港股通高股息低波动交 易型开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为港红利。该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托管费率每年 0.10%。港股通红利低波ETF（520890）业绩比较基准为恒生港股通高股息低波动指数收益率(使用估值 汇率折算)。 规模方面，截止11月19日，港股通红利低波ETF（520890）最新份额为7200.80万份，最新规模为1.07亿 元。回顾2024年12月31日，港股通红利低波ETF（520890）份额为1.23亿份，规模为1.46亿元。即该基 金今年以来份额减少41.46%，规模减少26.98%。 流动性方面，截止11月20日，港股通红利低波ETF（520890）近20个交易日累计成交金额8.43亿元，日 均成交金额4216.72万元；今年以来，214个交易日，累计成交金额42.23亿元，日均成交金额1973.28万 元。 港股通红利低波ETF（520890）现任基金经理为李茜。李茜自2024年9月4日管理 ...

Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have continued to rise, exceeding 830 CNY/ton, but a short-term peak may be reached [1] - The core reason for the recent coal price increase is a fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics since May [1] - The coal production for October was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with production from July to October showing a continuous decline [1] - The total electricity consumption in August and September increased by 4.6%, a significant recovery from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating strong demand [1] - Despite entering the typical demand off-season, demand has remained unexpectedly high, particularly in East China [1] Group 3: Market Insights - As of November 14, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 837 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous week [2] - The focus on domestic supply stability and reduced imports is expected to maintain a steady decline in total supply for the year [2] - The operating rate of major coking enterprises was reported at 79.18%, indicating a slight increase [2] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [3] - Other recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [3]