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孩子王:2024年业绩增长过度依赖乐友国际、业绩增长可持续性存疑

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the company in 2024 shows growth in revenue and net profit, but the sustainability of this growth is questionable due to heavy reliance on a single subsidiary, Leyou International [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.337 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.68% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 72.44% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [1]. Dependency on Leyou International - Leyou International contributed 1.0454 billion yuan to the net profit, accounting for 57.7% of the total [1]. - Excluding Leyou International, the company's original business net profit was only 76.72 million yuan, a decline of 36% compared to 2022 [1]. - Leyou International's profit commitment for 2024 was 100 million yuan, with an actual completion of 1.0454 billion yuan, indicating a completion rate of 104.4% [1]. Industry Challenges - The mother and baby retail industry is facing intense competition from traditional offline retailers and e-commerce platforms, leading to price wars and traffic competition [2]. - The overall industry is experiencing a decline in newborn birth rates, with 1.079 million related businesses being deregistered in 2023, indicating a downward trend in industry prosperity [2]. Strategic Recommendations - Optimize store structure and enhance single-store efficiency through refined operations, such as site selection and membership data analysis [3]. - Strengthen online and offline integration capabilities, exploring O2O models to reduce logistics costs and enhance repurchase rates through private traffic operations [3]. - Deepen supply chain and brand building by increasing the proportion of proprietary brands and collaborating with international brands to develop exclusive products [3]. - Monitor policy and market risks closely, preparing for potential policy benefits and enhancing ESG investments to align with changing consumer values [3]. Conclusion - The company's 2024 performance reflects initial success in strategic acquisitions and digital transformation, but challenges such as store efficiency, margin pressure, and intensified competition remain [4]. - Future strategies should focus on balancing expansion and profitability through innovative service models and supply chain optimization to solidify industry position [4].